农林牧渔行业跟踪分析：9月上市公司出栏同比增长，仔猪整体销量环比下滑

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - In early October, pig prices rebounded to around 18 CNY/kg, with breeding profits remaining favorable. As of October 11, the average profit for self-breeding groups was 306 CNY per head [2][9] - The overall pig output from listed companies in September 2024 showed a year-on-year increase, although the sales of piglets decreased month-on-month. The total output of commodity pigs from listed companies was 12.14 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.07% but a year-on-year increase of 1.66% [2][20] - The report suggests that due to a significant decline in piglet births in the first half of the year and the upcoming traditional consumption peak in Q4, pig prices are expected to remain strong. The current valuation of the sector is at historical lows, with major companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [2][30] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Trends in Pig Prices and Breeding Capacity - Pig prices have rebounded to approximately 18 CNY/kg, with breeding profits still in a good range. The average profit for self-breeding groups was 306 CNY per head as of October 11 [2][9] - The number of breeding sows is slowly recovering, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in the number of sows in September [2][15] 2. Listed Company Tracking - In September, the total output of commodity pigs from listed companies was 12.14 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.07% but a year-on-year increase of 1.66%. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the output was 6.785 million heads, with a month-on-month increase of 5.74% [2][20] - The average selling price in September was 18.84 CNY/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 6.67% [2][21] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased by 3.6% month-on-month, reaching approximately 109.8 kg per head [2][21] 3. Investment Recommendations - Given the significant decline in piglet births and the upcoming peak consumption season, Q4 pig prices are expected to remain strong. The report highlights that the current valuation of the sector is at historical lows, recommending major companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while also paying attention to smaller companies like Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biological, and Huaton [2][30]