疫苗批签发点评：2024年前三季度人用疫苗批签发呈现明显分化

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][5] Core Insights - The human vaccine batch issuance in the first three quarters of 2024 shows significant differentiation, with HPV vaccines experiencing a substantial decline in batch issuance [2][3] - The long-term driving factors for the vaccine industry remain intact, including policies, demand, and technology, which are expected to promote long-term growth [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections HPV Vaccines - In the first three quarters, the total batch issuance of HPV vaccines was 152, a year-on-year decrease of 63.2%. The two-valent HPV vaccine saw a decline of 84.17%, while the four-valent and nine-valent HPV vaccines decreased by 93.75% and 8.74%, respectively [2][3][9] Pneumococcal Vaccines - The total batch issuance of pneumococcal vaccines was 100, down 20.63% year-on-year. The 13-valent vaccine decreased by 19.72%, while the 23-valent vaccine saw a decline of 26.53% [3][9] Rabies Vaccines - The total batch issuance of human rabies vaccines reached 1130, an increase of 18.08% year-on-year. The freeze-dried rabies vaccine (Vero cells) grew by 23.53% [3][9] Influenza Vaccines - The total batch issuance of influenza vaccines was 336, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.44%. The four-valent influenza virus subunit vaccine saw a significant increase of 160% [3][9] Shingles Vaccines - The total batch issuance of shingles vaccines was 78, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 188.89% [3][9] Chickenpox Vaccines - The total batch issuance of chickenpox vaccines was 233, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.73% [3][9] Meningococcal Vaccines - The total batch issuance of meningococcal vaccines was 333, with a slight year-on-year growth of 2.78% [3][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for HPV and four-valent influenza vaccines is intense, with significant price reductions observed. The price of the two-valent HPV vaccine dropped from over 100 yuan to 27.5 yuan per dose [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative vaccines and companies with strong overseas capabilities, as the industry is expected to face short-term pressures but has long-term growth potential [5][6]