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房地产行业数据点评：政策刺激需求释放，节后新房、二手房成交显著回升
Xiangcai Securities·2024-10-16 03:36

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the medium to long term [5][17]. Core Insights - Policy measures have significantly stimulated demand, leading to a notable rebound in both new and second-hand home transactions post-holiday [2][5]. - The first week after the holiday saw new home transaction area in 30 major cities reach 2.18 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 130% and a month-on-month increase of 139% [2][7]. - Major cities, particularly first-tier cities, have experienced substantial increases in transaction volumes due to relaxed policies on purchasing and financing [5][17]. Summary by Sections New and Second-hand Housing Sales Data - New home sales in first-tier cities reached 650,000 square meters, up 243% year-on-year and 154% month-on-month [2][7]. - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities totaled 1.62 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 215% and a month-on-month increase of 451% [2][7]. Key City Performance - Shanghai: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 916 units, a 274% increase year-on-year, with a peak of 1,334 units on October 13, marking a new high for the year [3][10]. - Guangzhou: New home daily transactions averaged 389 units, a 235% increase year-on-year, while second-hand transactions reached 3,120 units, a 46% increase month-on-month [12][13]. - Shenzhen: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 209 units, a 200% increase year-on-year, achieving a two-year high [13][14]. - Beijing: Daily transactions for second-hand homes averaged 534 units, a 340% increase year-on-year, while new homes averaged 184 units, a 346% increase year-on-year [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading developers with strong financing capabilities, land acquisition abilities, and reasonable land reserve layouts, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction conditions [5][17].