农林牧渔行业简评报告：标肥差加大刺激二育商积极入场，近期猪价逆势上涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5][29]. Core Insights - Recent pig prices have risen against the trend due to increased demand and reduced supply, with the national average price for live pigs at 18.15 CNY/kg as of October 12, 2024 [5][10]. - The supply of pigs has decreased following the consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, leading to a tighter market and increased entry of secondary fattening businesses [5][10]. - The demand for heavier pigs is increasing as temperatures drop, and slaughterhouses are facing challenges in sourcing pigs, which supports the price outlook [5][10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations, such as Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, which have advantageous breeding costs and strong growth potential [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Information Update - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 7.59% last week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.03 percentage points [8]. - The top five performing companies in the sector were ST Tianbang (4.60%), Guotou Zhonglu (3.86%), COFCO Technology (2.76%), Jingliang B (2.17%), and Zhongchong Co. (1.92%) [8]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Agricultural Products & Vegetable Price Index - As of October 14, 2024, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.59% to 131.31, with a year-on-year increase of 10.21% [10]. - Vegetable prices have risen by 12.68% year-on-year [10]. 2.2 Live Pig, Pork Prices & Breeding Sow Inventory - In June 2024, live pig inventory increased by 1.70% month-on-month but decreased by 4.60% year-on-year [12]. - In August 2024, the breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.10% month-on-month and by 4.80% year-on-year [12]. 2.3 Broiler Chicken & Chick Prices - As of October 11, 2024, the price of broiler chickens rose to 7.34 CNY/kg, while chick prices remained at 4.20 CNY each [14]. 2.4 Aquaculture Market - As of October 11, 2024, sea cucumber prices were stable at 130 CNY/kg, scallop prices at 12 CNY/kg, and abalone prices at 70 CNY/kg [16]. 2.5 Corn and Soybean Market - Global corn consumption is projected to rise to 1,223.32 million tons, with ending stocks decreasing to 306.52 million tons, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 25% [18]. - Global soybean consumption is expected to decrease to 402.72 million tons, with ending stocks increasing to 134.65 million tons, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 33% [18]. 3. Industry Information and Important Company Announcements - In September 2024, Minhe Livestock reported a sale of 19.29 million chicks, a year-on-year decrease of 9.58%, but a revenue increase of 57.17% year-on-year [23].