华锦股份：业绩显著承压，景气保持低迷

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in performance, with a revenue of 24.5 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.889 billion yuan, down 381.94% year-on-year [2][4]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 3.337 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 70.24% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 71.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for this quarter was -1.146 billion yuan, a decrease of 504.61% year-on-year and 374.15% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in international oil prices and lower-than-expected growth in downstream demand [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to have net profits of -1.55 billion yuan, 0.23 billion yuan, and 0.36 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 30.8X and 20.1X for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio including diesel, polypropylene, polyethylene, ABS resin, fertilizers, mixed aromatics, fuel oil, asphalt, and lubricants [5]. - The company is actively managing its raw material costs through hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of fluctuating oil prices [5]. Industry Insights - The chemical industry is facing continued pressure, with average demand for aromatics and refined oil products remaining low [5]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its production processes and energy consumption in its fertilizer segment to meet spring farming demands [5]. - The company is also involved in a joint venture to build an oil reserve project to ensure stable energy supply and reduce operational costs [5]. Production Capacity - The company operates three production bases in Liaoning and Xinjiang, with an annual processing capacity of 8.3 million tons of crude oil, 500,000 tons of ethylene, 800,000 tons of polymer resin, 1 million tons of road asphalt, 900,000 tons of lubricating oil base oil, and 1.32 million tons of urea [5].