2024年9月社融数据点评：社融结构仍待优化，期待政策效应释放

Group 1: Social Financing Trends - As of September 2024, the total social financing stock reached 402.19 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, continuing a decline of 0.1 percentage points from August[3] - The incremental social financing in September was 37,634 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations but still 3,692 billion RMB less than the same period last year[3] - The total amount of RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 19,742 billion RMB in September, a year-on-year decrease of 5,627 billion RMB, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline[3] Group 2: Financing Structure - Direct financing accounted for approximately 36.03% of the total social financing in September, an increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, with government bonds contributing significantly[5] - New government bond financing in September was 15,357 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5,437 billion RMB, while corporate bond financing turned negative, decreasing by 1,926 billion RMB[5] - The willingness of residents and enterprises to leverage remains low, with a notable decrease in both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans[9] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2, the broad money supply, grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, influenced by rising non-bank financial institution deposits[14] - In September, RMB deposits increased by 37,400 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15,000 billion RMB, primarily driven by non-bank financial institutions and non-financial corporate deposits[14] - M1, the narrow money supply, continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, indicating a widening gap between M1 and M2 growth rates[14]