前瞻│上市银行2024三季报展望与预测：息差企稳，利润增速边际回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Views - The report forecasts a revenue decline of 2.4% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024, with a profit increase of 0.6% compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - Net interest margins are expected to stabilize, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 basis points anticipated [1]. - Credit growth is projected to continue its downward trend, with an estimated credit growth rate of 8.2% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. - Asset quality is expected to improve, particularly in retail banking, with provisions still having room for release [1]. Summary by Sections Interest Margin Calculation - The report indicates that the prohibition of manual interest supplementation is expected to support net interest margins, which are projected to stabilize in the third quarter [6]. - The impact of LPR adjustments and stock mortgage rate reductions is expected to drag down margins, while deposit rate cuts will provide some support [8][10][15]. Scale Calculation - The report highlights weak demand in the real economy, leading to a continued decline in credit growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% noted for the end of the third quarter [22]. - The overall asset scale growth for listed banks is estimated at 7.3%, aligning with the social financing growth rate [31]. Asset Quality Observation - The report anticipates improvements in retail banking asset quality, with provisions expected to have some release space [1]. - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan ratio expected to stay manageable [1]. Revenue and Performance Estimation - The report estimates a revenue decline of 2.4% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024, with a profit increase of 0.6% expected [1]. - The report notes that non-interest income support is weakening, leading to a marginal decline in revenue growth [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets within the banking sector, particularly Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank [1]. - It also recommends considering high-dividend stocks among large banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China [1].