上市银行2024三季报展望与预测：息差企稳，利润增速边际回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Views - The report anticipates a revenue decline of 2.4% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024, with a profit increase of approximately 0.6% [1][3]. - Net interest margins are expected to stabilize, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 basis points [1][3]. - Credit growth is projected to continue its downward trend, with a forecasted credit growth rate of 8.2% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][3][29]. - Asset quality is expected to improve, particularly in retail banking, with provisions still having room for release [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Margin Calculation - The report indicates that the prohibition of manual interest supplementation is expected to support net interest margins, which are projected to stabilize in the third quarter [6][17]. - The impact of LPR adjustments and the reduction of existing mortgage rates are expected to drag down margins by 5.5 basis points cumulatively in the third and fourth quarters of 2024 [8][9]. - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to provide a cumulative support of 6.2 basis points for net interest margins during the same period [15][16]. Scale Calculation - The report highlights weak demand in the real economy, leading to a continued decline in credit growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% as of the end of the third quarter [22][29]. - The overall asset scale growth for listed banks is projected at 7.3%, aligning with the social financing growth rate [31]. Asset Quality Observation - The report notes that retail banking risks are expected to improve over the year, with provisions still having room for release [1][3]. - The overall asset quality remains stable, with sufficient coverage for credit costs against the net generation of non-performing loans [1][3]. Revenue and Performance Estimation - The report estimates a revenue decline of 2.4% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024, with a profit increase of 0.6% [1][3]. - The report suggests that the non-interest income support is weakening, leading to a marginal decline in revenue growth [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core assets within the banking sector, particularly Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank [1][3]. - It also suggests paying attention to high-dividend stocks among large banks, such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank [1][3].