宏观专题研究：复盘与展望，地方政府债务置换

Group 1: Background and Context - The central government approved local governments to issue replacement bonds to resolve existing debts starting in 2015, with a total issuance of 13.7 trillion yuan by 2018, accounting for 20% of 2015 GDP[1] - The issuance of replacement bonds was front-loaded, with annualized issuance exceeding 5 trillion yuan in the first two years, addressing nearly 90% of hidden debts[1] - The hidden debt scale recognized by the government in 2013 was 7 trillion yuan, which significantly increased to 13.7 trillion yuan by 2018[5] Group 2: Effects of Debt Replacement - The debt replacement eased cash flow pressures for local governments, but the real estate cycle's upward trend was the main driver for local government balance sheet expansion[2] - From 2014 to 2018, the total liabilities and interest-bearing liabilities of local investment platforms saw a significant slowdown in growth, dropping from nearly 30% in 2014 to around 13% by 2018[2] - The real estate market recovery led to a substantial increase in land transfer revenues, with local government income from land sales rebounding from a -21.4% growth in 2015 to +15.1% in 2016[2] Group 3: Current Debt Management and Future Outlook - Post-2018, the management of hidden debts has tightened, with local fiscal imbalances becoming more pronounced after the latest round of debt replacement[2] - The current round of debt replacement is expected to focus on multiple measures rather than solely on replacement bonds, with an estimated hidden debt scale close to 7 trillion yuan, but only 5.6% of 2023 GDP[2] - The expansion of local government balance sheets is likely to be moderate, especially in regions experiencing significant population outflow, with land transfer income unlikely to return to pre-2021 growth rates[2]