Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology (003009) 东方财富·2024-10-16 08:23Investment Rating - The report gives Zhongtian Rocket a "Buy" rating, citing its leading position in small solid rocket technology and expected future performance [1] Core Views - Zhongtian Rocket is a pioneer in small solid rockets for both military and civilian use, with broad product coverage [10] - The company's core technologies include small solid rocket design, high-performance materials, and measurement and control systems [10] - Its main products include weather modification rockets, sounding rockets, and small guided rockets [10] - The company is controlled by the Aerospace Power Technology Research Institute under China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, which has 15 listed companies at home and abroad [1][15] - With the trend of military asset securitization, the company has broad development opportunities [1] Business Segments Small Solid Rockets and Related Products - The company's small solid rocket products include weather modification rockets, sounding rockets, and small guided rockets [10] - Weather modification rockets are used for agricultural disaster prevention and major event weather support [10] - Sounding rockets are used for atmospheric parameter detection at altitudes of 0-300km [10] - Small guided rockets are suitable for low-intensity conflicts, with high precision and low collateral damage [10] Small Solid Rocket Engine Core Materials and Related Products - The company produces carbon/carbon thermal field materials and solid rocket engine ablation-resistant components [11] - Carbon/carbon thermal field materials are used in high-temperature equipment for photovoltaic crystal growth [11] - Ablation-resistant components are used in the propulsion systems of various small solid rockets [11] Small Solid Rocket Measurement and Control Technology and Related Products - The company's main product in this segment is the intelligent weighing system [12] - The system is used for rapid weight detection of cargo vehicles, with applications in toll collection, overload detection, and non-site law enforcement [12] Industry Background Weather Modification Rockets - The Chinese government has issued several documents to promote the high-quality development of weather modification work [24] - By 2025, the area affected by artificial rain and snow operations is expected to reach 5.5 million square kilometers [25] - Zhongtian Rocket has developed automated launchers, IoT equipment management systems, and other related products [26] Sounding Rockets and Guided Rockets - Sounding rockets have been developed for over 60 years, with China having three generations of such rockets [29] - Small guided rockets are a growing market, with Zhongtian Rocket having a first-mover advantage in China [31] Carbon/Carbon Thermal Field Materials - The global silicon wafer market is growing rapidly, with China accounting for 97.9% of global capacity in 2023 [33] - The demand for carbon/carbon thermal field materials is increasing due to the shift towards N-type silicon wafers [40] - The domestic thermal field market is expected to reach 9.3 billion yuan by 2025 [37] Solid Rocket Ablation-Resistant Components - China's aerospace industry has seen significant technological advancements, with the Long March rocket series achieving world-class levels [41] - Ablation-resistant components are critical for solid rocket engines, with high requirements for heat resistance and insulation [44] Intelligent Weighing Systems - China's smart transportation market is growing rapidly, with the market size expected to reach 261 billion yuan in 2024 [47] - Non-site law enforcement systems are becoming more popular, with high demand for dynamic weighing equipment [52] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.272 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.617 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.09% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 105.45 million yuan in 2024 to 136.88 million yuan in 2026 [1] - The company's carbon/carbon thermal field materials accounted for 41.51% of revenue in the first half of 2024 [18] R&D and Capacity Expansion - The company has a strong R&D team and has established the first provincial-level civil rocket engineering technology center in China [53] - The company is continuously expanding its product line, including forest fire extinguishing bombs, military training equipment, and car carbon-ceramic brake discs [58] - The company's R&D expenses in 2023 were 79.7 million yuan, accounting for 6.75% of revenue [59] - The company's capacity expansion projects are progressing steadily, with several projects already in production [59]