大类资产跟踪周报：财政发力预期升温，A股或迎修复行情

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a phase of recovery due to rising expectations of fiscal stimulus, following a significant opening after the National Day holiday, although it faced volatility due to profit-taking and adjustments in fiscal policy expectations [4][6] - The U.S. market showed resilience with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices experiencing slight gains, despite higher-than-expected CPI data, indicating ongoing uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections and potential Fed rate cuts [4][6] Major Asset Weekly Tracking - Global major assets exhibited a mixed performance, with U.S. stocks leading, followed by commodities, domestic bonds, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, which underperformed significantly [6][8] - The A-share market saw a sharp decline after an initial surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index dropping by 3.56% and 6.53% respectively [6][10] Stock Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a full retreat after a high opening, with the ChiNext 50, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 showing relatively better performance, while the Shenzhen Component and other indices faced larger declines [9][10] - Sector performance varied, with technology and finance sectors showing resilience, while real estate and media sectors faced significant losses [11] Bond Market Insights - Continuous expectations for policy stimulus are likely to limit the downward space for long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly declining to 2.14% [5][12] - Short-term rates may decrease due to redemption pressures, while the overall bond market remains cautious amid ongoing policy developments [5][12] Commodity Market Overview - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are supporting oil and gold prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude showing positive performance amidst concerns over supply disruptions [14][15] - Despite weak demand conditions, oil prices are expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical factors, while gold prices face pressure from fluctuating expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy [14][15] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The premium of AH shares has rebounded, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages, while the risk premium for A-shares remains above the median [17] - The S&P 500 risk premium is slightly below its historical median, suggesting varying investor sentiment across markets [17] Key Data and Events Outlook - Upcoming economic data releases from China are anticipated, with significant attention on the September economic indicators set to be published on October 18 [19]