房地产市场周报（10.14-10.20）：中央明确止跌回稳目标，宏观政策将更为积极

Market Overview - The sales volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased significantly by 139.15% week-on-week, but decreased by 12.02% year-on-year during the week of October 7-13, 2024[2] - The transaction area for first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 153.63%, 83.62%, and 266.97% respectively on a week-on-week basis[2] Policy Measures - The central government has shifted its regulatory stance from "risk prevention" to "stabilizing the market," indicating a more proactive approach to support the real estate sector[2] - The Ministry of Finance announced on October 12, 2024, that it will utilize special bonds and tax policies to support the stabilization of the real estate market[12] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, such as China State Construction and China Power Construction, as support policies continue to strengthen[3] - Large state-owned real estate companies like Vanke and Poly are expected to see marginal improvements in sales due to ongoing demand stabilization efforts[3] Risks - There is a risk that the effectiveness of the policies may fall short of expectations, potentially leading to a spread of credit risks among real estate companies[3] Housing Market Dynamics - As of October 13, 2024, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 33.35% year-on-year, indicating a continued low absolute volume[2] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing nationwide from January to August 2024 was approximately 606.02 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, with sales revenue decreasing by 23.6%[17]