Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 21.94% in September 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points [4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across sub-industries, with the agricultural processing sector showing the highest gains, while the aquatic product processing sector lagged behind [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, as prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the coming quarters [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In September 2024, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index outperformed the CSI 300 index, ranking 17th among 30 industries [4]. - All sub-industries experienced varying degrees of growth, with agricultural processing leading the gains [4]. 2. Livestock Farming 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in September 2024 was 19.17 CNY/kg, down 6.26% month-on-month but up 15.90% year-on-year [8]. - The supply of weaned piglets decreased by 2.86% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with a cautious approach to replenishing stock due to concerns over seasonal price drops [8]. - The average price of piglets in September was 34.47 CNY/kg, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline but a 33.86% year-on-year increase [8]. 2.2. Broiler Chicken - The price of broiler chickens fell to 7.23 CNY/kg in September 2024, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month and 11.0% year-on-year [17]. - The average loss in broiler farming was 2.8 CNY per bird in September, indicating a worsening profitability situation [19]. 3. Pet Food - Pet food exports in August 2024 reached 28,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.68%, with cumulative exports from January to August totaling 216,900 tons, up 28.85% [21]. - The report notes a significant increase in pre-sale performance for pet food brands during the "Double 11" shopping festival, indicating strong market demand [21]. 4. Key Agricultural Product Price Tracking - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn, wheat, and soybean meal prices during September 2024 [23][26]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The report includes updates on key events and announcements from listed companies in the agriculture sector, highlighting ongoing developments and strategic moves [28][31].
农林牧渔行业月报：猪价回落，宠物数据表现亮眼
Zhongyuan Securities·2024-10-16 10:30