Orient Securities·2024-10-16 10:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a steady increase in daily active users (DAU) and user engagement due to the integration of content and commercial resources, as well as the broadcasting effect of the Paris Olympics [1] - E-commerce GMV is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year to 333.8 billion CNY in Q3 2024, driven by promotional events [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow by 20.2% year-on-year to 17.66 billion CNY in Q3 2024, with internal advertising growth outpacing GMV growth [1] - Live streaming revenue is expected to decline by 4.7% year-on-year to 9.26 billion CNY in Q3 2024 [1] - The total revenue for Q3 2024 is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year to 31 billion CNY [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure and improving operational efficiency, with an expected gross margin of 53.8% in Q3 2024 [1] - The AI model commercialization is progressing rapidly, with significant improvements in quality and functionality [1] Financial Summary - The company’s adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 17.005 billion CNY in 2024, with a target price of 60.47 HKD per share based on a 14x PE valuation [2][6] - Revenue for FY2024 is expected to reach 126.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 54.0% in FY2024, with a net profit margin of approximately 11.4% [5][6]