Industry Overview - The lottery industry has experienced rapid growth, with sales increasing by 36.51% in 2023, reaching a total of 579.696 billion yuan [1] - The industry is policy-sensitive and state-dominated, with strict regulations and gradual policy improvements [1] - Two key drivers for future growth are the younger demographic of lottery buyers and the "lipstick effect," which boosts demand due to low cost and strong entertainment value [1] - Lottery types are divided into welfare and sports lotteries, with sports lottery sales surpassing welfare lottery sales in 2018 [1] - The industry has high barriers to entry and a concentrated market structure, with upstream, midstream, and downstream segments [1] Lottery Types and Sales Performance - Lottery types include lotto, instant, Keno, sports betting, and video lottery, with lotto and sports betting dominating sales [1] - Instant lottery sales grew rapidly, with a 100.20% increase in 2023 due to popularity among younger consumers [22] - Keno lottery sales surged after rule changes in 2020, with a 2389.90% growth in 2021 [23] - Sports betting lottery sales rebounded strongly in 2021 and 2022, driven by major sports events like the World Cup [24] - Video lottery sales have declined significantly and are no longer included in official statistics since 2021 [25] Industry Chain and Market Structure - The upstream segment focuses on lottery product development and issuance, with strict regulatory approval processes [30] - The midstream segment involves lottery printing, terminal equipment supply, and sales system services, with high technical barriers for instant lottery printing [31] - The downstream segment includes lottery sales and related services, with a shift back to paper-based sales after restrictions on internet and phone-based sales [32] - Lottery revenue is distributed as prizes (over 50%), public welfare funds (50% local, 50% central), and issuance fees (7%-8% to downstream sales) [33] Key Companies in the Industry - China Sports Industry (600158): A state-controlled company with a comprehensive lottery business, including terminal hardware, software, and printing services [38][39] - Alibaba Lottery (08279): A subsidiary of Alibaba Group, focusing on lottery distribution, terminal sales, and online platforms like Taobao and Alipay [40][41] - Songyang Resources (603863): A paper manufacturing company that entered the lottery industry by acquiring a stake in Jinling Lecai, focusing on video lottery operations in Hainan [42] Investment Recommendations - Focus on upstream lottery product development and downstream sales, as these segments offer innovation opportunities and high market concentration [44] - Key companies to watch include China Sports Industry (600158) and Songyang Resources (603863) [44]
彩票行业深度报告：彩票行业快速发展，产业链多维机会值得把握
东方证券·2024-10-16 11:07