研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 17 日 宏观经济 | 专题报告 中企出海的"第二增长曲线" ——"地缘扰动下的出海新格局"系列 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 由"分子端"驱动的中企出海"第一增长曲线"已成为投资者共识，未来出海的产 品结构将从偏重"基建类"转向偏重"制造类"出海的高景气。2025 年这一轮中 国企业出海投资需求远未触及尾声，只是后续产业投资的环节可能有所变化。从资 本品出口结构的规律来看，在某一地区一轮出海的三年快速增长周期内，前两年多 以基建相关需求为主导，第三年起则逐步转向制造及专用设备细分品类。 ⚫ 但"分母端"驱动的出海"第二增长曲线"尚未被完全认知，即出海风险下降带来 的企业出海需求的增长。中企出海风险集中在两个方面： ⚫ 一方面是地缘政治风险。 2025 年，美西方"泛安全化"政策对出海风险的影响已 愈发凸显，其中最典型的便是美国的长臂管辖措施——如 2025 年 9 月特朗普政府 推出的"50%股权穿透性规则"，以及随后发生的荷兰安世半导体事件。 ...

特斯拉 V3 确定性提升，产能扩张在即，看 好制造经营优势企业 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 近期关于特斯拉 V3 机器人的公开信息增多，我们认为市场的担忧下降、行业景气度上升 的确定性上升，由此带来投资机会。在 V3 落地后，我们预计行业将进入产能扩建，而制 造和经营能力领先的企业更具投资机会。相关标的：拓普集团(601689，买入)、三花智 控(002050，买入)、五洲新春(603667，买入)、恒立液压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技 (300953，买入)。 风险提示 厂商生产不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放 缓、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期、订单执行效果低于预期、产品 降价风险。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 17 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 电感编码器性能卓越，机器人应用打开长 | 2026 ...

国网"十五五"计划投资 4 万亿，看好国 内海外电网板块共振 投资建议：国网"十五五"计划四万亿投资规划落地，国内电力设备行业有望持续 维持高景气，同时叠加"北美缺电"拉动电力设备出海量价齐升，以及 AIDC对供配电技 术提出新需求（SST 固态变压器），看好国内海外电力设备板块共振。 特高压相关标的：平高电气(600312，未评级)、许继电气(000400，未评级)、中国 西电(601179，未评级) 电力设备出海及 SST 固态变压器相关标的：金盘科技(688676，未评级)、思源电气 (002028，未评级)、四方股份(601126，未评级)、伊戈尔(002922，未评级)、安靠智电 (300617，未评级)等。 风险提示 国网投资不及预期、特高压建设不及预期、海外 SST 固态变压器技术应用不及预期等。 电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 17 日 看好（维持） 朱洪羽 执业证书编号：S0860525010001 zhuhongyu@orientsec.com.cn 0755-82819271 核心观点 投资 ...

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation with a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting a focus on structural adjustments rather than short-term speculative trading [3][4] - Mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors, are gaining traction, with a strategy emphasizing mid-cap blue chips as ballast and technology growth as a supporting force [3][4] - Relevant ETFs include Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) and China Concept ETF (513050) [3] Group 2: Industry Strategy - The magnesium industry is poised for significant growth, with the magnesium-aluminum ratio at a historical low of 0.75, indicating a favorable environment for magnesium alloy applications [4] - The global electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain tight in 2026, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of magnesium alloys, particularly in the automotive and robotics sectors [4] - Key companies in the magnesium sector include Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182) and Xingyuan Zhuomag (301398) [4] Group 3: Thematic Strategy - The demand for inductive encoders is set to rise as robot mass production approaches, with potential market expansion estimated at 5.4 billion yuan if mass production reaches one million units [5] - Inductive and magnetic encoders are expected to see widespread application in robotic joints due to their lightweight and robust performance characteristics [5] - Relevant companies in this space include Huichuan Technology (300124) and Xinjie Electric (603416) [5]

电感编码器量产进展不及预期、人形机器人厂商量产不及预期、假设条件变化影响测算 结果。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 16 日 看好（维持） 电感编码器性能卓越，机器人应用打开长 期空间 ——装备新科技挖掘 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 人形机器人量产将带来编码器市场空间扩展，相关零部件厂商有望受益，相关标的 包括汇川技术(300124，未评级)、信捷电气(603416，未评级)、鸣志电器(603728， 未评级)。 风险提示 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 从 CES 看，简单量产叙事将边际变弱， | 2026-01-10 | | --- | --- | | AGI 叙事将边际变强：——机器人产业跟 | | | 踪 | | | TPU 材料性能优势明显，有望广泛应用于 | 2026-01-10 | | 人形机器人：——装备新科技挖掘 | | | 挖机12月销量加速，26年持续增长的确定 | 20 ...

政府债支撑减弱下社融增速回落，对公信 贷同比多增 12 月金融数据点评 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 2026 年银行板块有望回归基本面叙事："十五五"开局之年，政策性金融工具加持 下资产扩张仍有韧性；仍处于存款集中重定价周期，支撑净息差有望企稳；结构性 风险暴露仍期待有政策托底。2026 年，保险行业将系统性执行 I9，公募考核新规的 中长期引导效应也有望显现，我们看好 2026 年银行板块绝对收益。现阶段关注两条 投资主线： 1、基本面确定的优质中小行，相关标的：南京银行(601009，买入)、宁波银行 (002142，买入)、渝农商行(601077，买入)； 2、基本面稳健、具备较好防御价值的国有大行，相关标的：交通银行(601328，未 评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)。 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧。 银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the magnesium industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The magnesium industry is approaching a "singularity moment" as the penetration of magnesium alloys in the electric vehicle and humanoid robot sectors accelerates, with leading manufacturers expected to see a rapid release of orders [4][14]. - The magnesium-aluminum ratio is at a historical low, opening up cost-effective opportunities for magnesium to replace aluminum in various applications [10][12]. - Technological advancements are addressing the corrosion resistance and processing challenges of magnesium alloys, facilitating broader application [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Lightweight Cycle Review - The penetration rate of magnesium alloys has lagged behind expectations, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where the aluminum usage per vehicle is significantly higher than that of magnesium [23][24]. 2. Low Magnesium-Aluminum Ratio - The magnesium-aluminum ratio has dropped below 1, indicating that magnesium alloys are becoming more economically viable compared to aluminum [10][12]. - The supply of aluminum remains tight due to high overseas electricity prices and operational challenges, while the magnesium supply is gradually stabilizing [34][46]. 3. Technological Breakthroughs - Advances in semi-solid forming technology are improving the mechanical properties and corrosion resistance of magnesium alloys, thus expanding their application potential [10][11][32]. - The demand for lightweight materials in electric vehicles and humanoid robots is increasing, with projections indicating a significant rise in magnesium alloy usage [10][12][41]. 4. Summary - The magnesium industry is expected to experience growth driven by increasing demand and supply optimization policies, benefiting leading magnesium refining companies [54][56]. 5. Listed Companies - Key investment targets include Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182, Buy) and Xingyuan Zhuomag (301398, Not Rated), both of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth [4][14].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing disturbances but maintains a long-term upward trend, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant and seek opportunities in mid-cap blue-chip stocks and cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and electricity equipment [3][4]. Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force in the current market environment, with a focus on cyclical sectors that are expected to continue their upward momentum [3]. - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the index are seen as a healthy correction, allowing for potential investment opportunities in sectors that have shown resilience [3]. Industry Strategy - In the electricity sector, the report highlights that the long-term contract electricity prices are expected to be better than market expectations, with a potential decrease in settlement prices being less severe than anticipated [4]. - The report suggests that the current market sentiment regarding the profitability of the thermal power sector is at a low point, indicating a potential for recovery and better-than-expected earnings in 2026 [4]. Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI into consumer electronics, predicting that advancements in AI will accelerate the upgrade of traditional hardware products, particularly in computers, displays, and home appliances [5]. - It also highlights the potential breakthroughs in AI hardware, such as AI glasses and headphones, which are expected to enhance user interaction experiences [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to increase its overseas data center product capacity, with liquid cooling expected to be a key area for profit growth [2]. - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.14, 1.51, and 1.93 CNY respectively, with an average PE valuation of 37 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3]. - The company is investing approximately 2.69 billion CNY in a new subsidiary in Mexico to enhance its manufacturing capabilities for commercial vehicles and data center thermal management products, reflecting confidence in overseas business growth [11]. - A planned acquisition of Deep Blue Co., which will enhance the company's liquid cooling product offerings, is expected to improve competitive advantages and profitability [11]. - The demand for overseas data center liquid cooling products is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increased orders from major clients like NVIDIA and Google, positioning the company to capture a larger market share [11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 18.5% [5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, indicating robust profitability [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry in China [5] Core Insights - The demand growth driven by AI is expected to lead to price increases in certain mature processes, with wafer foundries anticipating a price hike of 5-20% for 8-inch wafers due to tightening capacity [7] - The report highlights that AI is boosting the demand for power ICs, which will continue to enhance the demand for mature process wafer foundries [7] - Domestic wafer foundries are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of localization in the IC manufacturing industry, with companies like SMIC seeing increased market share and orders [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests several investment targets in the semiconductor sector, including: - Wafer manufacturing companies: SMIC (688981, Buy), Huahong Semiconductor (01347, Buy), Jinghong Integrated Circuit (688249, Buy), Huarun Microelectronics (688396, Buy), Yandong Microelectronics (688172, Not Rated), and Xilian Integrated-U (688469, Not Rated) [3][8] - Semiconductor equipment companies: Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy), Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy), Tuojing Technology (688072, Buy), Shengmei Shanghai (688082, Buy), Huahai Qingke (688120, Not Rated), and Zhongke Feice (688361, Not Rated) [3][8] Market Dynamics - According to TrendForce, the global 8-inch capacity is expected to decrease by approximately 0.3% in 2025 and further by 2.4% in 2026, leading to an increase in average capacity utilization rates to 85-90% in 2026 [10] - The report indicates that the demand for power ICs will continue to grow due to the increasing computational power and energy efficiency requirements of AI applications, which will further stimulate the demand for mature process wafer foundries [7]