宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 11 日 ⚫ "反内卷"力度超预期，收缩效应大于财政工具作用的风险；假设条件变化影响测 算结果的风险。 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 追求精细化，开启新阶段——2026 年"以 | 2026-01-04 | | --- | --- | | ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需趋稳，助力核心通胀平稳收官 2025 年 12 月通胀点评 研究结论 | 委内瑞拉事件对美国"例外溢价"或短多 | 2026-01-06 | | --- | --- | | 长空：——海外札记 20260105 | | | 美军突袭委内瑞拉：被定价的地缘冲击， | 2026-01-06 | | 未被定价的秩序暗涌：——极简政经史 | | | （2026 年第 1 期） | | | 美委地缘扰动不改中国出海大势：——美 | 2026-01-05 | | 国突袭委内瑞拉影响快评 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 11 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 同比分别为 0.8%、1.2%（前值 0.7%、1.2%，后同），整体 上稳中有升。CPI 同比再次回升，其中有食品项的季节性因素，但更值得关注的是 内需的基本面下行风险进一步得到缓解。 ⚫ 此前恶劣气候对蔬果价格的影响并未完全消失，后续随着供给冲击减弱，食品 CPI 同比或再次转负，但猪价有望逐渐回暖，对 CPI 的拖累程度 ...

模型迭代与 AI 入口竞争共振，AI 产业链行 情值得期待 核心观点 事件： 1）据国外媒体"The Information"报道，DeepSeek 计划在 2 月中旬正式发布下一代 V4 模型，该模型将重点强化编程能力； 2）国内 AI 大模型公司智谱、MiniMax 本周相继登陆港股市场，其中智谱上市后两 个交易日股价上涨超 36%，而 MiniMax 上市首日上涨超 109%，市值破千亿港元。 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为在新一轮模型迭代以及互联网大厂加速应用推广的背景下，AI 应用将迎来 较好的投资机遇，而算力产业链也将受益于应用端加速带来的需求提升。 | AI for Science：重塑科研范式，开拓商业 | 2026-01-08 | | --- | --- | | 新空间 | | | 太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 | 2025-12-02 | | 模型迭代再次加速，AI 应用范式迎来革新 | 2025-11-23 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 AI 应用领域，相关标的包括 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, specifically focusing on NAND and SSD sectors driven by AI demand [6]. Core Insights - AI applications are expected to drive a rapid increase in SSD usage, leading to a prolonged boom cycle for both SSD and NAND markets [3][10]. - The global data volume is projected to grow significantly, with active data becoming a larger portion due to AI model applications [19][31]. - The demand for SSDs is anticipated to rise sharply as they meet the high throughput requirements for active data in data centers, surpassing traditional HDDs [10][34]. Summary by Sections 1. AI - The application of AI models is expected to significantly increase the proportion of active data, transforming previously dormant data into frequently accessed data [21][22]. - By 2030, it is estimated that 100% of hot data will be stored on SSDs, reflecting a shift in data storage paradigms [22]. 2. SSD - SSDs are favored for their high read/write speeds and ability to handle high workloads, making them suitable for active data storage in data centers [34][40]. - The power efficiency of SSDs is a significant advantage, especially as data center power demands increase [48][51]. - AI training and inference are driving the development of AI SSDs, which require high performance, large capacity, and energy efficiency [54][56]. 3. NAND - The NAND market is expected to experience a prolonged period of supply-demand imbalance, with limited capital expenditure from leading manufacturers [10][11]. - The concentration of the global NAND market is high, with major players like Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix focusing on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) rather than expanding NAND production [10][11]. 4. Enterprise SSD - The report highlights several key companies in the semiconductor and storage sectors that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends, including domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers and storage module companies [3][13].

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 12 月猪企出栏延续增量降重 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20260105-20260111） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 结合新生仔猪情况，预计 26Q2 猪价拐点显现，板块业绩长期提升可期，相关标的：牧原 股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2） 后周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步 向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向 好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未 评级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠 食行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持 续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股 ...

TPU 材料性能优势明显，有望广泛应用于 人形机器人 ——装备新科技挖掘 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 人形机器人轻量化趋势不可逆转，未来电子皮肤有望得到广泛应用，推动灵巧手、 电子皮肤相关厂商订单增长，带动轻量化材料及部件供应商订单增长，相关标的包 括模塑科技(000700，未评级)、美瑞新材(300848，未评级)、福莱新材(605488，未 评级)。 风险提示 新材料研发进展不及预期、人形机器人厂商生产不及预期、机器人场景需求落地不明确 导致低于预期、机器人行业政策变化导致行业发展放缓、机器人行业融资不及预期。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 10 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 海关统计挖机出口加速，行业健康发展的 | 2025-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 确定性上升：——机械行业跟踪 | | | 锂电装备厂商签获合同，行业订单有望继 | 2025-1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The U.S. military's raid on Venezuela is expected to boost oil shipping demand. Since December 2025, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, limiting oil exports. Following the raid on January 3, 2026, it was announced that Venezuela may transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., potentially easing sanctions and increasing compliant market shipping volumes [7] - Short-term oil exports from Venezuela may remain constrained, but long-term legalization could enhance compliant market shipping demand. Venezuela's oil production is projected to account for about 1% of global output by 2025, with oil shipping exports making up around 2% of global exports. Currently, 17% of these exports go to the U.S., with over 50% shipped to Asia via shadow fleets [7] - The tightening of sanctions since 2025 has improved oil shipping supply and demand dynamics. The U.S. has intensified sanctions on Iranian shadow fleets, increasing the proportion of sanctioned VLCCs from 8% to 17%. This is expected to further reduce Iranian oil export efficiency, while OPEC+ production increases may help balance the market [7] - Oil shipping rates are anticipated to rise significantly in 2025 due to ongoing crude oil production increases and continued sanctions on shadow fleets. The oil shipping market is expected to recover, with potential for better-than-expected conditions in 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026, not rated) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872, not rated) [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [8] Core Insights - December sales of excavators accelerated, indicating a structural recovery opportunity in the domestic market, with a projected continued growth in the industry through 2026 [3][8] - The market's expectations for structural improvements in the industry are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in risk assessments and favorable investment opportunities for mid-cap blue-chip companies [3] - Key investment targets include: Hengli Hydraulic (601100, not rated), Liugong (000528, not rated), Zoomlion (000157, Buy), XCMG (000425, not rated), and Sany Heavy Industry (600031, not rated) [3] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Performance - In 2025, a total of 235,300 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%, with domestic sales at 118,500 units (up 17.9%) and exports at 116,700 units (up 16.1%) [8] - December 2025 saw sales of 23,095 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales of 10,331 units (up 10.9%) and exports of 12,764 units (up 26.9%) [9] - The past three months have shown an increase in both domestic and export sales growth rates, reflecting an upward trend in industry prosperity and presenting short-term investment opportunities [8] Export Market Dynamics - The demand for large excavators is expected to continue, particularly for mining applications, as commodity prices rise, which may enhance the sustainability of excavator exports [8] - Major importing countries have shown a preference for larger excavators, with average tonnage exceeding 20 tons in countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, indicating a trend towards mining applications [8] Domestic Market Trends - There are structural improvements in domestic demand, which are beneficial for internal sales growth, despite overall utilization rates being under pressure [8] - The average working hours and operating rates of excavators in December 2025 were lower than in December 2024, indicating that the recovery is not uniform across the sector [8] - The trend of replacing manual labor with small excavators is expected to continue, contributing to stable growth in demand for the industry [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see new developments in the upcoming Olympic cycle, with the launch of new store formats and product lines aimed at enhancing brand engagement and meeting diverse consumer needs [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.95, 1.07, and 1.22 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 25.41 HKD based on a 24x valuation for 2025 [3][10]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging consumer environment, with expectations for slight revenue growth driven by specific product categories and improved operational efficiency [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598 million RMB - 2024: 28,676 million RMB (growth of 3.9%) - 2025: 29,101 million RMB (growth of 1.5%) - 2026: 30,640 million RMB (growth of 5.3%) - 2027: 32,747 million RMB (growth of 6.9%) [4]. - Operating profit and net profit forecasts indicate a decline in 2025, with operating profit expected to be 3,331 million RMB and net profit at 2,465 million RMB, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable, with estimates of 48.8% in 2025 and gradually increasing to 49.2% by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 18.6 in 2025, decreasing to 14.6 by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation over time [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a healthy upward trend, with indices rising and a rotation among sectors, particularly in cyclical stocks like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, alongside technology growth [3][5] - The strategy emphasizes a focus on mid-cap blue chips in cyclical and manufacturing sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, smart vehicles, and robotics [3][5] - The report highlights the potential for the rare earth sector to see a dual boost in profitability and valuation, drawing parallels to the 2010 scenario where export controls led to significant price increases [4][5] Market Strategy - The current market structure supports a strategy of light index weight and heavy structural focus, with a recommendation to invest in mid-cap blue chips and technology growth [3][5] - The report mentions specific ETFs related to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, indicating a diversified investment approach [3][5] Industry Strategy - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increased demand due to export controls, with projections for price increases similar to those seen in 2010 [4][5] - The report notes that recent announcements regarding export controls may stimulate inventory accumulation in overseas markets, further supporting price stability [4][5] - The solid-state battery industry is highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements in technology signaling a critical phase for commercialization [5]