广告业务有望迎来拐点，看好云业务高增 ——百度 25Q4 业绩点评 百度集团-SW 09888.HK 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年03月03日） | 117.3 港元 | | 目标价格 | 141.85 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 161.2/73.25 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 275,017/222,583 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 322,595 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 03 月 05 日 | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到公司传统在线营销业务下滑，AI新业务仍处于培育期，我们预测公司 25-27年 经调整归母净利润为 189/191/221 亿元（原预测 25-27 年为 193/195/220 亿元）。采 用 PE 估值法，参考可比公司给予公司 26 年 18xPE 估值，对应合理价值为 3,446 亿 CNY，折合 3,901 亿 HKD（港币兑人民币汇率 0.883），目标价 141.85 港元/股，维 ...

网易云音乐 09899.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 流量增长，会员数及 ARPU 有望双增 ——网易云音乐（9899.HK）25H2 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司持续引入韩国知名厂牌曲库加入音乐储备，同时强化原创音乐推广，我们认为 在线音乐 MAU 或将因此受益。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 27.5/20.1/24.0 亿元，（25~27 原值为 28.1/21.7/25.4 亿，我们根据 25H2 财报下调在线音乐收入预 测等，从而对盈利预测进行调整）。根据可比公司 26 年调整后平均 P/E 21 倍，给 予目标价 214.37 港币（189.35 人民币，HKD/CNY=0.88），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 汽水音乐带来竞争；原创音乐收益不及预期；版权成本提高；行业监管政策趋严 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,867 | 7,950 | 7,759 | 8,442 | 9,145 | ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策务实，经济迈向再平衡 ——2026 年政府工作报告学习体会 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 05 日 | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | --- | --- | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 刘姜枫 | 执业证书编号：S0860526010002 | | | liujiangfeng@orientsec.com.cn ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 经济"开门红"仍较温和 2026 年 2 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 逆周期政策传导速度不及预期的风险；其他国家贸易政策具有不确定性的风险；地 缘冲突频发对大宗商品价格的影响超预期。 图 1：春节是 PMI 进一步回落的主要原因，实际表现并不弱 （%） 数据来源：同花顺，东方证券研究所 数据来源：同花顺，东方证券研究所 48 48.5 49 49.5 50 50.5 51 图 3：中小型型企业 PMI 压力明显更大（%） 图 4：建筑业 PMI 进一步回落（%） 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 2024/9 2024/10 2024/11 2024/12 2025/1 2025/2 2025/3 2025/4 2025/5 2025/6 2025/7 2025/8 2025/9 2025/10 2025/11 2025/12 2026/1 2026/2 大型企业 中型企业 小型企业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 05 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@or ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 58.41 CNY based on a projected PE ratio of 33 times for 2026 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic cross-border B2B platform, with steady revenue and net profit growth. The core business, China Manufacturing Network, accounts for over 80% of revenue [8][12]. - From 2020 to 2024, revenue is expected to grow from 1.159 billion CNY to 1.669 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 9.55%. Net profit is projected to increase from 173 million CNY to 451 million CNY, with a CAGR of 27.07% [27][28]. - The company has launched several AI products to enhance operational efficiency, with AI tools expected to significantly reduce costs and improve productivity in foreign trade [8][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow steadily, with revenue reaching 1.519 billion CNY in 2023 and net profit reaching 379 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% and 26.1% respectively [4][27]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 75.3% in 2020 to 80.5% in 2024, driven by the increasing share of high-margin B2B business [25][28]. - The net profit margin is projected to rise from 14.9% in 2020 to 27% in 2024, with a forecasted net profit margin of 29.2% in 2025 after adjusting for incentive expenses [28][29]. Market Dynamics - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to continue its growth, with China's cross-border e-commerce export penetration rate increasing from 4.64% in 2019 to 8.17% in 2025, indicating significant room for growth compared to the global e-commerce penetration rate of 20% [8][38]. - The company benefits from favorable national policies and technological advancements, positioning itself well within the expanding cross-border B2B market [8][36]. - The Belt and Road Initiative is expected to contribute to the growth of foreign trade, with exports to Belt and Road countries increasing from 5.43 trillion CNY in 2020 to 13.69 trillion CNY by 2025, achieving a CAGR of 20.3% [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic mother and baby retail industry, with a recovery in revenue and net profit expected to continue [6]. - The domestic mother and baby products and services market is projected to grow from 3.5 trillion yuan in 2020 to 4 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.4% [6]. - The company is focusing on a three-expansion strategy: expanding product categories, market segments, and business formats, which includes acquisitions to enhance its product matrix [6]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 8,753 million yuan in 2023 to 13,129 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 10.0% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 105 million yuan in 2023 to 571 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3]. - The company’s EPS is projected to rise from 0.08 yuan in 2023 to 0.45 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The target price is set at 13.32 yuan, based on a 36x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a 10% premium due to the company's leading position and faster profit growth compared to peers [6]. Company Overview - The company has been operating since 2009 and has established itself as a leader in the mother and baby retail sector, with over 1,200 stores across more than 200 cities [13][10]. - The core business is focused on the sale of mother and baby products, which accounts for over 80% of revenue [22][21]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the founder holding 27.14% of the shares [15]. Market Dynamics - The domestic mother and baby retail market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with the company holding only 0.3% market share as of 2024, indicating significant room for growth [6]. - The market is expected to benefit from policy support for childbirth and a shift towards more scientific parenting practices [6][48]. - The company is leveraging AI and digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [6]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue has shown resilience, with a CAGR of 14.5% from 2015 to 2024, despite fluctuations due to external factors [29]. - The gross margin has improved from 24.7% in 2015 to 29.7% in 2024, driven by increased scale and higher-margin service offerings [27]. - The net profit margin is projected to stabilize and improve, with net profit expected to reach 1.81 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 72.4% increase from the previous year [29][30].

焦点科技 002315.SZ 公司研究 | 首次报告 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. | | 买入（首次） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年03月03日） | 42.92 元 | | 目标价格 | 58.41 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 63.47/29.63 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 31,724/20,232 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 13,616 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 商贸零售 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 03 月 04 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -4.28 | -16.76 | 0.05 | -0.17 | | 相对表现% | -3.18 | -16.67 | -2.71 | -19.91 | | 沪深 300% | -1.1 | -0.09 | 2.76 | 19.74 | 跨境 B2B 全链路布局，AI 锦上添花 焦点科技首次覆盖报 ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 | 海外地缘和降息节奏彰显国内风险评价下 | 2026-02-25 | | --- | --- | | 行：20260222 多资产配置周报 | | | 前期热点波动上行，中盘蓝筹风险可控： | 2026-02-11 | | 20260209A 股风格及行业配置周报 | | | 中国资产相对占优，中债看避险，A 股看 | 2026-02-10 | | 结构：20260209 多资产配置周报 | | | 继续看好中盘蓝筹，关注化工/农业等涨价 | 2026-02-03 | | 线索：20260202A 股风格及行业配置周报 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 涨价仍是主线 20260302A 股风格及行业配置周报 研究结论 风 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 商品聚焦供需变化，权益关注风险偏好 ——资产配置月报 202603 研究结论 ⚫ 3 月资产观点：商品聚焦供需变化，权益关注风险偏好 风险提示 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 | 2026-02-04 | | --- | --- | | 换：——资产配置月报 202602 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2 ...

⚫ 与市场不同的观点： 1 年初以来部分核心城市挂牌量下降、价格企稳引发市场对于周期拐点的期待，但我们认为仍 需观察。首先，改善城市样本并不充裕，主要以上海、南京为代表，深圳等核心城市压力仍 大。其次，近期楼市改善有其特殊原因，以上海为例，今年春节较晚导致部分小阳春需求前 置，房价急跌半年、近期的政策宽松预期也促成了部分观望需求入市，叠加供给端挂牌量的下 降，最终促成了楼市企稳。需要指出的是，上海去年四季度以来的挂牌量下行是价格急跌后成 交量上行，部分房东接受不了过低的价格而撤牌，新增挂牌量小于撤牌+成交量所致。而近期 挂牌量的下滑则有季节性原因，每年临近春节和春节假期挂牌量都会有所下滑，春节后将有所 回升。此外，今年上海还将迎来首次限售房的大规模集中解禁，届时将对市场形成冲击。我们 认为 5 月是非常重要的楼市真实景气度观测节点。 2.年初以来《求是》等官媒的发文引发市场对于政策转向和新一轮大规模房地产救市政策的期 待，但我们认为政府对房地产的政策思路并无实质变化。根据我们对过往政策思路的理解结合 近期的解读，政策总体方向依旧是防风险、保民生、去金融化，对出险房企的处置原则依旧是 市场化、法制化。《求是》虽 ...