Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy-driven financial tools [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in January 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of asset expansion in the banking sector, supported by a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, which is expected to stabilize net interest margins [25][26]. - It identifies two main investment themes: quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals and state-owned banks with defensive value [26]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In January 2026, social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1,654 billion yuan more than the previous year [9][10]. - The report notes that the increment in government bonds was significant, with an increase of 2,831 billion yuan, marking the highest level for January since 2020 [10]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of loans fell to 6.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 4.71 trillion yuan, which is 4,200 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. Deposit Growth and Monetary Aggregates - M1 and M2 growth rates showed a rebound, with M1 increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and M2 by 9.0% [21]. - The report states that new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate and non-bank deposits [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment lines: quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which are rated as stable [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading commercial entity in Xinjiang, focusing on the low-altitude economy and enhancing its retail capabilities through digital transformation and supply chain optimization [2][8]. - The company has a stable business structure with supermarkets and department stores as core segments, and it is responding to consumer demand by accelerating business transformation [8][9]. - The retail industry is entering a new development phase supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [8][48]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to be 2,494 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 30.8%, followed by a slight decline in 2024 to 2,409 million yuan [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 162 million yuan in 2023, with a significant growth of 203.1% [4]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.18 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.39 yuan in 2027, with a target price set at 12.09 yuan based on a 39x PE ratio for 2026 [4][8]. Company Overview - The company has been operating for 25 years, establishing itself as a leader in the Xinjiang retail market with a total of 5 shopping centers, 6 department stores, and 11 independent supermarkets, covering an area of over 1.07 million square meters [12][16]. - The company’s revenue structure shows that supermarkets contribute over 50% of total revenue, while department store revenue has decreased significantly due to changes in accounting standards [27][25]. - The management team has extensive experience in the industry, with a stable shareholding structure that supports long-term strategic planning [20][23]. Market and Policy Environment - Recent government policies have focused on enhancing domestic demand, positioning the retail sector as a key area for economic recovery [48][49]. - The company is leveraging its regional advantages and adapting to market changes by implementing AI-driven management systems and exploring low-altitude economic opportunities [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading commercial entity in Xinjiang, focusing on the low-altitude economy and retail sector [2][8]. - The company has a stable business structure with supermarkets and department stores as core components, and it is responding to consumer demand by accelerating business transformation and enhancing supply chain management [8][9]. - The report predicts a positive trend in profitability, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.18, 0.31, and 0.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and a target price of 12.09 yuan based on a 39 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 [8][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company's financial information for 2023 to 2027 shows projected revenue growth, with 2023 revenue at 2,494 million yuan, expected to decline slightly in 2024 to 2,409 million yuan, and then gradually increase to 2,746 million yuan by 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to rise significantly from 199 million yuan in 2023 to 243 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong recovery in profitability [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to follow a similar trend, increasing from 162 million yuan in 2023 to 183 million yuan in 2027 [4]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in net profit margin, projected to rise from 2.4% in 2024 to 6.7% in 2027, indicating improved operational efficiency [4][8]. Company Overview - The company has been operating for 25 years, establishing itself as a leader in the Xinjiang retail market with a diverse portfolio including shopping centers, department stores, and supermarkets [12][16]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 5 shopping centers, 6 department stores, and 11 independent supermarkets, covering a total area of over 1.07 million square meters [16][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the founder maintaining significant control, which contributes to consistent management and strategic direction [20][23]. Market and Policy Environment - The retail industry is entering a new development phase supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with the company positioned to benefit from these trends [48][49]. - The report notes that the retail sector is a key focus for stimulating domestic demand, with expectations for improved performance as supportive policies are implemented [48][49]. - The company is also leveraging advancements in AI and low-altitude economy initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and supply chain capabilities [8][9].

Employment Data Analysis - The unemployment rate in January decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, primarily driven by supply factors[4] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, with private sector growth at 172,000 and government sector reducing by 42,000[8] - The growth in employment is concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, which contributed 137,000 jobs, accounting for 80% of private sector growth[8] Employment Quality and Risks - The credibility of the employment data is questioned due to structural concentration and discrepancies with ADP data, which reported only 22,000 private non-farm jobs added[8] - Leading indicators related to unemployment, such as the proportion of part-time employment due to economic reasons, show potential upward risks for the unemployment rate[8] - Job vacancies fell to 6.54 million in December, indicating a need for confirmation of employment demand stabilization[8] Wage Growth and Inflation Outlook - Wage growth is expected to slow down in the next 3-6 months, with consumer confidence declining and labor income not recovering[8] - The current economic indicators suggest that inflation is not a pressing concern in the short term[8] Market Implications - The market is likely to experience prolonged volatility, with expectations of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affecting the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and precious metals[8]

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for February, with the index expected to remain stable and oscillate around the high and low points of January, suggesting a controlled approach to position management during the holiday season [3][8] - The mid-cap blue-chip style is expected to continue, with a focus on adjusting positions rather than passive defense, particularly in the livestock and chemical sectors [3][8] Market Strategy - The index is showing a slightly strong oscillation, with market sentiment indicating a lower risk appetite compared to the previous week, leading to rapid sector rotations [3][8] - Recommendations include controlling positions to avoid uncertainties during the holiday while being prepared for potential liquidity recovery post-holiday [3][8] Industry Strategy - In the agriculture sector, pig inventory is at a low point, with price bottoms being tested ahead of the holiday, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment regarding pig prices [5][8] - The report highlights that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter has dropped to approximately 88.3 kg, suggesting limited downside for pig prices, with expectations for a price turning point in Q2 2026 [5][8] Thematic Strategy - The military industry is highlighted for its potential due to the resonance of domestic and international demand, with significant growth opportunities anticipated in unmanned and deep-sea technologies, as well as in military trade markets [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the military sector, which is expected to clarify new equipment construction plans and enhance investment opportunities [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 150.27 CNY [4][11] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 revenue of 2.49 billion USD, exceeding its guidance, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.8% and a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [10] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing domestic substitution in the supply chain, with a projected 18% year-on-year revenue growth from Chinese customers in 2025 [10] - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of high-value-added products, with a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter growth in wafer revenue in Q4 2025 [10] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 5.04 billion, 6.74 billion, and 8.04 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made to gross margin and expense ratios [4][11] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 45.25 billion CNY in 2023 to 90.36 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][14] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.9% in 2025 and 2027, with net profit margins improving gradually [6][14]

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for February, with the index expected to stabilize and oscillate around the highs and lows of January, suggesting a controlled approach to position management during the holiday season [3][8] - The mid-cap blue-chip style is expected to continue, with a focus on adjusting positions rather than passive defense, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors [3][8] Industry Strategy - In the agricultural sector, the report highlights that pig inventory is at a low point, with price bottoms being tested ahead of the holiday season. The market's pessimistic expectations regarding pig prices are seen as overestimated, with a potential recovery in prices anticipated as inventory levels stabilize [5][8] - The report notes that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter has dropped to approximately 88.3 kg, indicating limited downward price movement potential. The report predicts a price turning point in Q2 2026, with the average price for the year expected to exceed market expectations [5][8] - The report emphasizes the military industry, highlighting the resonance of domestic and international demand, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" unfolds, particularly in unmanned and deep-sea technologies [6][8] Related Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks in the agricultural sector include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Haida Group (002311), with a buy rating suggested [5][8] - In the military sector, recommended stocks include Huaxin Technology (688281) and Guobo Electronics (688375), with a buy rating suggested [6][8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of 0.8%[6] - The CPI month-on-month remained flat at 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[6] - The decline in CPI is attributed to both base effects and weak month-on-month momentum[6] - Core inflation remains the main contributor, with clothing, services, and medical care showing positive growth, while food, housing, and transportation experienced negative growth[6][17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -1.9%[23] - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - The rise in PPI is driven by base effects and stronger month-on-month momentum, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector[23][32] - Non-ferrous metals continue to provide the main upward pressure on PPI, while other sectors like equipment and durable goods show slight improvements[32] Group 3: Price Transmission Issues - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by external factors, with limited transmission to downstream prices[35] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to lead to a significant rebound in CPI for February 2026, as historical trends suggest a month-on-month increase[35] - External geopolitical factors are expected to support PPI in the short term, but internal price transmission requires more demand-side policies and capacity clearing measures[35]

中芯国际 688981.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 | 四季度营收超公司指引 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 50.4/67.4/80.4 亿元（原预测为 52.2/65.6/79.8 亿元，主要调整了毛利率、费用率及部分损益项），采用 DCF 估值法，给予 150.27 元 目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.15 | -10.76 | -2.31 | 14.03 | | 相对表现% | -0.17 | -9.81 | -3.64 | -7.36 | | 沪深 300% | 0.32 | -0.95 | 1.33 | 21.39 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][6][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the configuration suggestion is to dig for opportunities in the pro - cyclical market, emphasizing both the chemical and agricultural sectors. The agricultural sector is expected to have price - rising prospects due to emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, funds are under - allocating to the agricultural sector, and the agricultural sector, with its mid - cap blue - chip characteristics, is expected to resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - In 2025, the agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with significant structural differentiation. Pig farming was under pressure, while beef cattle farming showed good performance. Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector [6][15] - For 2026, fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal, especially in the breeding sector such as pig and beef cattle farming [6][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 February Configuration Suggestion - Configuration strategy: Focus on the chemical and agricultural sectors in the pro - cyclical market. The agricultural sector is favored because of price - rising opportunities from emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, active equity mutual funds allocate less than 0.5% to the agricultural sector, and the scale proportion of agricultural - related ETFs is also low. The agricultural and forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with mid - cap blue - chip features, may resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - Recommended funds: Suggest paying attention to funds such as YinHua Agriculture Industry A, Agriculture Select LOF, etc. YinHua Agriculture Industry A holds the most agricultural - sector stocks and mainly allocates to the breeding sector, with a high proportion of holdings in pig and poultry breeding companies [2][9][10] 2025Q4 Quarterly Report on Agricultural Fund Core Viewpoints 2025 Agricultural Sector Market - Overall performance: The agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with structural differentiation. Although the agricultural index rose slightly in Q4, sub - sectors like breeding and feed declined, while the agro - chemical sector performed well due to supply - side adjustments [6][15] - Key sub - sectors: Pig farming was under pressure as pig prices hovered at the bottom, and the industry entered a new cycle of capacity reduction. Price recovery is expected in the second half of 2026. Beef cattle farming was outstanding, with beef prices rebounding significantly from the bottom, large - scale and long - term capacity reduction, and good stock price performance. Consumption - related sectors were sluggish [6][15][17] 2025 Agricultural Sector Configuration - Configuration ideas: Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector. They moderately increased holdings in leading enterprises during the trough of the breeding industry and concentrated their allocations on excellent companies in various sub - fields [17] - Fund types: Agricultural theme funds continued to focus on the breeding industry chain and adjusted their positions according to the cycle. Some general consumption funds slightly increased their allocations to the agricultural sector with low current valuations in Q4 [18][19] 2026 Agricultural Sector Outlook - Overall outlook: Fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector in 2026, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal. They emphasize the price - rising foundation at a low base and the reversal potential after capacity reduction. They are particularly optimistic about the upward cycle of the beef cattle/animal husbandry industry [20] - Pig farming opportunity: The capacity reduction that started in the second half of 2025, combined with policy constraints and deep losses, will enable the pig farming sector to reach a cycle configuration point or price reversal in 2026, especially in the second half of the year [20][21]