日期：2025年12月19日 1. 低利率环境如何演变 | 姓 | 名 | 齐晟（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 杜林（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 王静颖（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 徐沛翔（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | qisheng@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | dulin@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | wangjingying@orient | 邮 | 箱 | xupeixiang@orientse | | | | m.cn | | | m.cn | | | sec.com.cn | | | c.com.cn | | 电 | 话 | 18930809670 | 电 | 话 | 17611226630 | 电 | 话 | 15674975413 | 电 | 话 | 13317003002 | | | 执业证书编号 | S0860521120001 | | 执业证书编号 | S0860522080004 | ...

| 姓 | 名 | 齐晟（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 杜林（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 王静颖（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 徐沛翔（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | qisheng@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | dulin@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | wangjingying@orient | 邮 | 箱 | xupeixiang@orientse | | | | m.cn | | | m.cn | | | sec.com.cn | | | c.com.cn | | 电 | 话 | 18930809670 | 电 | 话 | 17611226630 | 电 | 话 | 15674975413 | 电 | 话 | 13317003002 | | | 执业证书编号 | S0860521120001 | | 执业证书编号 | S0860522080004 | | 执业证书编号 | S0860523080003 | ...

食品饮料行业 策略报告 看好（维持） 食品饮料2026：大年起点，持旧迎新 ——食品饮料2026年度策略报告 日期：2025年12月19日 姓 名 李耀 邮 箱 liyao@orientsec.com.cn 电 话 021-63325888 执业证书编号 S0860525100001 东方证券股份有限公司 食品饮料2026：大年起点，持"旧"迎"新" • 食品饮料2026：大年起点易涨难跌，核心矛盾在于业绩。我们认为，食品饮料2021-2024年主要在于通过业绩释放来去化估值泡沫，站 在2025年末，板块估值回到历史区间底部，但消费力低迷等因素导致板块处于业绩下修区间，板块核心矛盾回归分子端，也即是业绩。 • 分子端：从结构红利到总量修复，持"旧"迎"新"。我们认为，伴随经济结构转型及居民资产负债表修复，2026年有望成为需求侧的拐 点，在一定时间内，消费的"需求侧L型"与消费的"结构性"特征或将共存，新消费业绩景气延续，旧消费业绩出清；伴随时间展开，消 费有望呈现总量修复与结构性繁荣共存局面，传统消费与新消费均有望实现业绩上修，其中传统消费有望释放业绩弹性。 • 持"旧"：需求探底、经营改善，传统消费将迎来 ...

日期：2025年12月19日 核心观点： ➢ 25年政策力度整体平淡，26年可能迎来政策组合拳。自去年9.24至今，已经持续五个季度没有出现强刺激的地产政策。我们理解主要是因为 今年的出口较为强劲，全年的经济增长任务完成情况较好，地产端的宽松政策可能延后。在此背景下，今年下半年以来房价，尤其是二手房 价加速下行，亟需等待政策托底。 而就在近期举行的12月中央经济工作会议，明确了对26年房地产工作的要求是"着力稳定房地产市场"；并提出房 地产政策方向，包括因城 施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收储、深化公积金制度改革、推动"好房子"建设；此外，在货币政策工具方面，提到"灵活高效运用 降准降息"。 26年政策重点关注：1）降息、房贷贴息。其本质是降低购房者实际利率，收敛与净租金回报率的差距以重塑房价的底部支撑，阻断下行螺旋。 26年降息预期提升，但"灵活高效运用"也可能预示下降空间较为有限；房贷贴息的关键则在于幅度与周期长度。2）深化公积金改革。在商 贷收缩的情况下，公积金作为另一重要购房资金渠道，若能更在使用用途、资金管理等方面突破，并更大范围推广，公积金池剩余资金或可 撬动房地产市场加速企稳回升。3）核心城市 ...

| 姓 | 名 | 黄汝南（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 孙金霞（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | | | 电 | 话 | 010-66210535 | 电 | 话 | 021-63326320 | | 执业证书编号 | | S0860525120004 | 执业证书编号 | | S0860515070001 | | 姓 | 名 | 陈至奕（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 孙国翔（证券分析师） | | 邮 | 箱 | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | | | 电 | 话 | 021-63326320 | 电 | 话 | 021-63326320 | | 执业证书编号 | | S0860519090001 | 执业证书编号 | | S0860523080009 | | 姓 | 名 | 孙金霞（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.72 CNY based on a projected EPS of 0.17, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY for 2025 to 2027, respectively, and a reference PE of 78 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to increase its investment in its subsidiary, Aerospace Rocket Company, by 728 million CNY, which includes 128 million CNY from a previous refinancing project [2]. - The investment aims to enhance the subsidiary's capacity to meet the growing demand in the aerospace industry and to support the development of core technologies in commercial aerospace [9]. - The company has a strong position in the commercial aerospace sector, leveraging its experience in traditional aerospace projects and its leading technology in inter-satellite laser communication [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 18,727 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%. However, a decline of 23.7% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.6%, 33.1%, and 23.3% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 589 million CNY in 2023, with a decrease of 12.1%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, reaching 1,292 million CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 525 million CNY in 2023, with a decline of 14.3%, and is projected to grow to 1,042 million CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.32 CNY in 2027 [5][11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leader in the small and medium-sized drone market and is expected to benefit from the growing demand for low-cost drones [9]. - The investment in the Aerospace Rocket Company is expected to facilitate the development of new technologies and enhance the company's competitive edge in the commercial aerospace market [9]. - The company is also recognized for its strong electronic information capabilities, which are expected to drive revenue growth in its drone subsidiary [9].

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased adjustment pressure, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases due to limited rebound heights and accelerated sector rotation [6] - It is suggested to wait for better layout opportunities rather than frequent trial and error in timing [6] Style Strategy - Defensive strategies are emphasized as year-end approaches, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for medium-term timing [3] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from a decline in dollar credit, leading to potential price increases [3] Theme Strategy - The special steel industry is anticipated to undergo high-quality development due to expected cost declines and new import-export management regulations [4] - The implementation of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure and enhance domestic profitability [6] Investment Opportunities - Investment targets include Chifeng Gold (600988, Buy) and Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [6]

Economic Overview - November economic data shows a consistent trend with previous periods, indicating weakness in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments, while consumer confidence remains low[7] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, reflecting a significant fluctuation and pointing towards a need for improved supply-demand structure[7] - Retail sales growth in November dropped to 1.3%, influenced by previous high base effects and a decline in consumer confidence post "Double Eleven" promotions[7] Policy and Investment Insights - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, but the impact on investment growth may take time to materialize[7] - The focus on effective industrial investment is emphasized, with policies aiming for high-quality and sustainable growth rather than mere quantitative expansion[7] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply-demand compatibility and promoting consumption are expected to gradually improve consumer sentiment[7] Production and Trade Dynamics - Industrial value-added output slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, but high-tech industries showed a robust growth of 8.4%, indicating technology's crucial role in overall economic growth[7] - Export delivery value improved slightly from -2.1% to -0.1%, suggesting a narrowing of production fluctuations due to external trade conditions[7] Future Outlook - The market anticipates weaker growth in Q4 compared to Q3, with the expectation that the effects of new policies will take time to manifest, leading to continued economic challenges until year-end[7] - Despite current weaknesses, China's economic momentum remains strong, supported by counter-cyclical policies and a focus on domestic demand, particularly consumption[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is accelerating, with significant developments in satellite terminal projects and successful satellite launches [2][10] - The synergy between satellite launches and ground terminal applications is expected to enhance the overall satellite internet industry [10][11] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive demand for unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and operational informatization, highlighting the sector's growth potential [15] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on commercial aerospace companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [7][15][16] - It also highlights opportunities in the aerospace propulsion and engine chain, new domains, military electronics, and military trade [15][16] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) rose by 2.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.08% [18][21] - The report notes that the defense and military sector ranked 2nd out of 31 in terms of weekly performance [21] Key Developments - The successful launch of multiple low-orbit satellites within a week indicates a trend towards rapid network deployment becoming the norm [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of ground terminal projects as critical components in the satellite communication system, facilitating user access and service [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the sustained upward trend of copper, gold, and aluminum driven by industrial logic, despite uncertainties regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][14]. - It suggests that the primary driver for non-ferrous metal pricing will shift from interest rate expectations to industrial demand growth, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [9][14]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program, which may weaken the dollar's credit [9][14]. - It notes that tight supply conditions are expected to support copper prices in the medium term, with significant inventory shortages in non-American regions [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is poised to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of aluminum as a substitute for copper in air conditioning systems, driven by rising copper prices [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report anticipates a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper, gold, and aluminum, supported by strong industrial demand [9][14]. - It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the gold sector, particularly companies with improving production metrics [9][14]. - For copper, it highlights companies with significant resource reserves and ongoing production expansion as attractive investment targets [9][15]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, leading to pressure on steel profitability [16][20]. - Weekly rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.40% decline compared to the previous week and a 14.55% drop year-on-year [20]. - Steel prices have shown a slight overall decline, with the average price index for common steel dropping by 1.14% [32][33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales [41]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting increased demand and supply constraints in the market [46][48].