电感编码器量产进展不及预期、人形机器人厂商量产不及预期、假设条件变化影响测算 结果。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 16 日 看好（维持） 电感编码器性能卓越，机器人应用打开长 期空间 ——装备新科技挖掘 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 人形机器人量产将带来编码器市场空间扩展，相关零部件厂商有望受益，相关标的 包括汇川技术(300124，未评级)、信捷电气(603416，未评级)、鸣志电器(603728， 未评级)。 风险提示 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 从 CES 看，简单量产叙事将边际变弱， | 2026-01-10 | | --- | --- | | AGI 叙事将边际变强：——机器人产业跟 | | | 踪 | | | TPU 材料性能优势明显，有望广泛应用于 | 2026-01-10 | | 人形机器人：——装备新科技挖掘 | | | 挖机12月销量加速，26年持续增长的确定 | 20 ...

政府债支撑减弱下社融增速回落，对公信 贷同比多增 12 月金融数据点评 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 2026 年银行板块有望回归基本面叙事："十五五"开局之年，政策性金融工具加持 下资产扩张仍有韧性；仍处于存款集中重定价周期，支撑净息差有望企稳；结构性 风险暴露仍期待有政策托底。2026 年，保险行业将系统性执行 I9，公募考核新规的 中长期引导效应也有望显现，我们看好 2026 年银行板块绝对收益。现阶段关注两条 投资主线： 1、基本面确定的优质中小行，相关标的：南京银行(601009，买入)、宁波银行 (002142，买入)、渝农商行(601077，买入)； 2、基本面稳健、具备较好防御价值的国有大行，相关标的：交通银行(601328，未 评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)。 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧。 银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the magnesium industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The magnesium industry is approaching a "singularity moment" as the penetration of magnesium alloys in the electric vehicle and humanoid robot sectors accelerates, with leading manufacturers expected to see a rapid release of orders [4][14]. - The magnesium-aluminum ratio is at a historical low, opening up cost-effective opportunities for magnesium to replace aluminum in various applications [10][12]. - Technological advancements are addressing the corrosion resistance and processing challenges of magnesium alloys, facilitating broader application [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Lightweight Cycle Review - The penetration rate of magnesium alloys has lagged behind expectations, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where the aluminum usage per vehicle is significantly higher than that of magnesium [23][24]. 2. Low Magnesium-Aluminum Ratio - The magnesium-aluminum ratio has dropped below 1, indicating that magnesium alloys are becoming more economically viable compared to aluminum [10][12]. - The supply of aluminum remains tight due to high overseas electricity prices and operational challenges, while the magnesium supply is gradually stabilizing [34][46]. 3. Technological Breakthroughs - Advances in semi-solid forming technology are improving the mechanical properties and corrosion resistance of magnesium alloys, thus expanding their application potential [10][11][32]. - The demand for lightweight materials in electric vehicles and humanoid robots is increasing, with projections indicating a significant rise in magnesium alloy usage [10][12][41]. 4. Summary - The magnesium industry is expected to experience growth driven by increasing demand and supply optimization policies, benefiting leading magnesium refining companies [54][56]. 5. Listed Companies - Key investment targets include Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182, Buy) and Xingyuan Zhuomag (301398, Not Rated), both of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth [4][14].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing disturbances but maintains a long-term upward trend, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant and seek opportunities in mid-cap blue-chip stocks and cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and electricity equipment [3][4]. Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force in the current market environment, with a focus on cyclical sectors that are expected to continue their upward momentum [3]. - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the index are seen as a healthy correction, allowing for potential investment opportunities in sectors that have shown resilience [3]. Industry Strategy - In the electricity sector, the report highlights that the long-term contract electricity prices are expected to be better than market expectations, with a potential decrease in settlement prices being less severe than anticipated [4]. - The report suggests that the current market sentiment regarding the profitability of the thermal power sector is at a low point, indicating a potential for recovery and better-than-expected earnings in 2026 [4]. Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI into consumer electronics, predicting that advancements in AI will accelerate the upgrade of traditional hardware products, particularly in computers, displays, and home appliances [5]. - It also highlights the potential breakthroughs in AI hardware, such as AI glasses and headphones, which are expected to enhance user interaction experiences [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to increase its overseas data center product capacity, with liquid cooling expected to be a key area for profit growth [2]. - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.14, 1.51, and 1.93 CNY respectively, with an average PE valuation of 37 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3]. - The company is investing approximately 2.69 billion CNY in a new subsidiary in Mexico to enhance its manufacturing capabilities for commercial vehicles and data center thermal management products, reflecting confidence in overseas business growth [11]. - A planned acquisition of Deep Blue Co., which will enhance the company's liquid cooling product offerings, is expected to improve competitive advantages and profitability [11]. - The demand for overseas data center liquid cooling products is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increased orders from major clients like NVIDIA and Google, positioning the company to capture a larger market share [11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 18.5% [5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, indicating robust profitability [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry in China [5] Core Insights - The demand growth driven by AI is expected to lead to price increases in certain mature processes, with wafer foundries anticipating a price hike of 5-20% for 8-inch wafers due to tightening capacity [7] - The report highlights that AI is boosting the demand for power ICs, which will continue to enhance the demand for mature process wafer foundries [7] - Domestic wafer foundries are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of localization in the IC manufacturing industry, with companies like SMIC seeing increased market share and orders [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests several investment targets in the semiconductor sector, including: - Wafer manufacturing companies: SMIC (688981, Buy), Huahong Semiconductor (01347, Buy), Jinghong Integrated Circuit (688249, Buy), Huarun Microelectronics (688396, Buy), Yandong Microelectronics (688172, Not Rated), and Xilian Integrated-U (688469, Not Rated) [3][8] - Semiconductor equipment companies: Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy), Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy), Tuojing Technology (688072, Buy), Shengmei Shanghai (688082, Buy), Huahai Qingke (688120, Not Rated), and Zhongke Feice (688361, Not Rated) [3][8] Market Dynamics - According to TrendForce, the global 8-inch capacity is expected to decrease by approximately 0.3% in 2025 and further by 2.4% in 2026, leading to an increase in average capacity utilization rates to 85-90% in 2026 [10] - The report indicates that the demand for power ICs will continue to grow due to the increasing computational power and energy efficiency requirements of AI applications, which will further stimulate the demand for mature process wafer foundries [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growing importance of smart glasses as a key application for edge AI, particularly highlighted by developments at CES and Meta's plans to increase production capacity [3][8] - The global shipment of smart glasses is projected to grow from 9.93 million units in 2025 to 86.9 million units by 2030, with the market size expected to expand from 19.7 billion yuan to 161.2 billion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 50% [8] - The report identifies key players in the smart glasses and cross-border e-commerce sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their innovative product offerings and market positioning [3][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the significant presence of Chinese brands at CES 2026, with over 90% representation in the smart glasses sector [8] - Major innovations include the launch of the world's first dual-lens AR glasses with eSIM functionality and lightweight AI glasses aimed at overseas markets [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued optimism for the smart glasses supply chain and highlights leading cross-border e-commerce companies that are expected to benefit from AI applications [3][8] - Specific investment targets include companies like Mingyue Optical (301101, Buy) and others in the smart glasses and cross-border e-commerce sectors [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing disturbances but maintains a long-term upward trend, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant and seek opportunities in mid-cap blue-chip stocks and cyclical sectors like oil, coal, and power equipment [3][4]. Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force in the current market environment, with a focus on cyclical sectors that are expected to continue their upward momentum [3][4]. - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the index are seen as healthy, allowing for a search for offensive opportunities while maintaining a defensive posture [3]. Industry Strategy - In the power sector, the report highlights that the long-term contract electricity prices are expected to be better than market expectations, with the actual settlement prices for thermal power likely to decline less than anticipated [4]. - The report suggests that the current market sentiment regarding the profitability of the thermal power sector is at a low point, indicating potential for better-than-expected earnings in 2026 [4]. Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI into consumer electronics, predicting that advancements in AI will accelerate the upgrade of traditional hardware products, particularly in computers, displays, and home appliances [5]. - It also mentions that innovative AI hardware, such as AI glasses and headphones, is expected to enhance user interaction experiences, despite some skepticism regarding user acceptance [5].

Group 1: Export Performance - December exports showed a significant year-on-year increase of 6.1%, up from 5.9% in the previous month, indicating a strong finish for 2025[7] - The demand for capital goods, particularly from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, continues to support China's equipment exports, with December's growth at 3.5%[7] - Exports to Africa, a key region for capital goods, maintained a high growth rate of 21.8% in December, despite a slight decline from 27.6%[7] Group 2: Import Trends - U.S. imports from China showed a significant decline of 30% in December, contrasting with a 12.8% increase in non-U.S. regions, highlighting weak demand in traditional consumer goods[7] - The inventory pressure in the U.S. market remains high, affecting short-term import demand, particularly in the traditional consumer goods sector[7] - Despite current weaknesses, the overall U.S. demand remains resilient, with expectations for a recovery in import demand, particularly in electronics[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The adjustment of tariff policies in regions like Russia and the EU has led to a surge in exports, with December automotive exports increasing by 71.7% compared to the previous year[7] - The shift in U.S. mobile phone import sources, with China's share dropping from 77.8% to 23% while India's share rose from 15.5% to 56.2%, indicates a significant restructuring in trade dynamics[7] - The strong performance of electronic products, including integrated circuits and mobile phones, suggests a potential recovery in U.S. consumer electronics demand, which may positively impact future export growth[7]

Group 1: Medical Service Price Trends - Recent data shows that medical service prices have increased, with a year-on-year rise of 2.9% in December, significantly higher than the overall CPI increase of 0.8%[10] - The rise in medical service prices is driven by regional adjustments in government-guided pricing, indicating a nationwide trend towards higher medical service costs[10] - The adjustment of medical service prices is not uniform; it reflects a structural change where labor costs for medical staff are increasing while some consumables are decreasing in price[14] Group 2: Economic Implications and Consumer Behavior - The healthcare expenditure as a percentage of total spending is higher in rural areas (10.7%) compared to urban areas (8.3%), indicating a greater financial burden on rural residents[20] - The ongoing reforms in medical service pricing are expected to improve hospital revenues, with estimates suggesting an increase of approximately 2.86 billion yuan in total hospital income across various regions[20] - The introduction of self-paid medical services may create a new revenue stream, allowing hospitals to enhance service quality and meet higher consumer demands[21] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The recent revision of the Pricing Law allows for more flexible government pricing mechanisms, which may lead to future price increases in public services, including education and healthcare[33] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for medical service prices is designed to ensure that changes occur only when the healthcare fund is stable, minimizing the impact on basic living standards[22] - The government is encouraging the provision of specialized medical services that are fully self-funded, which could support price increases while balancing the financial responsibilities of residents and hospitals[21]