宏观经济 | 专题报告 研究结论 关税难抑 risk-on，经济数据或定调后市 ——海外札记 20250714 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 政策不确定性。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 18 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | "大美丽法案"市场冲击或有限：——海 | ...

——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国产机器人有望引领全球产业发展 | 杨震 | 021-63325888*6090 | | --- | --- | | | yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 | | 丁昊 | dinghao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080002 | | 量产积极信号频现，海内外共振有望开启 | 2025-07-11 | | --- | --- | | 新行情：——机器人产业跟踪 | | | 龙头继续加码智能物流，看好无人叉车加 | 2025-07-08 | | 速产业化：——无人叉车系列报告 | | | 人形机器人将加速落地，零部件估值有望 | 2025-07-06 | | 提升：——机器人产业跟踪 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 国产人形机器人正加速突破，有 ...

报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 18 日 | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | --- | --- | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 彭楚榕 | pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 | | 戴思崴 | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | 东方战略观察：伊以冲突走向缓和，全球 风险偏好提升 2025-06-28 东方战略周观察：伊以地缘冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shandong Steel [5][10] Core Views - The company has successfully turned losses into profits in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in gross margin and net profit compared to previous quarters [9] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a target to lower the cost per ton of steel by over 60 yuan in the first half of 2025 [9] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from favorable industry conditions and cost reductions, leading to sustained profit growth [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for the company's earnings per share for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.77, 1.85, and 1.94 yuan respectively, with a target price of 1.77 yuan based on a 1X PB valuation [3][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 25 million yuan in 2025, recovering from losses in previous years [4][10] - The report highlights a projected increase in net profit to 845 million yuan in 2026 and 1.464 billion yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4][10]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 抢转口接近尾声，出口拐点或将更早到来 ——6 月进出口点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 美国进口需求超预期回落；假设条件变化影响测算结果。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 18 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | "反内卷"的政策效果在新兴行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is focusing on high-quality development in the new Olympic cycle, despite short-term revenue slowdown [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting EPS of 0.92, 1.05, and 1.20 RMB respectively [2][8] - The target price is set at 20.07 HKD, based on a 20x valuation for 2025 [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2] - Operating profit is expected to decline to 4,256 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 21.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 3,187 million RMB for 2023, down 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a net decrease of approximately 10 direct stores and an increase of around 40 franchise stores in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 48.4% in 2023, with a slight increase to 49.1% by 2027 [2][11] - The net profit margin is projected to decline from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 9.5% in 2027 [2][11] Market and Competitive Landscape - The retail environment is becoming increasingly competitive, with intensified discounting pressures from international brands [7] - The company is expected to increase marketing expenditures in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 to support sustainable growth [7] - The major shareholder has shown confidence in the company's long-term prospects by increasing their stake by approximately 1.11% [7]

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 玻纤仍需"反内卷"，落实效果或可期待 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 房价继续走弱，博弈价值再起：——建筑 | 2025-06-18 | | --- | --- | | 建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 行业需求仍偏弱，关注新兴材料产业：— | 2025-05-29 | | —建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 关税调整，跨境电商仍有作为：——遮阳 | 2025-05-29 | | 面料行业跟踪点评 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 玻纤企业 2025 年上半年利润同比明显好转，得益于行业的集体复价。展望未来，在整治 "内卷式"竞争的背景下，我们认为稳量、稳价政策执行效果或更好，从而提升市场对 于玻纤企业业绩增长的韧性和预期。建议关注玻纤行业头部企业中国巨石(600176，买 入)、中材科技(002080，未评级) 。 风险提示 ...

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 地产走弱冲击有限，城市更新有望接力 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 市场部分观点过于担忧地产下行对于建材板块估值的压制，且对城市更新带来需求释放 力度认识不够。但如前文所分析，我们认为投资者对于地产端需求下滑越来越"脱 敏"，反而更关注"止跌回稳"措施的出台，同时城市更新政治站位的提升，或蕴藏更 大的需求潜力。在目前阶段，一些所处较好赛道且自身经营已出现明显改善的企业，未 来有望迎来更多的发展机遇，建议关注涂料龙头三棵树(603737，未评级)。 风险提示 房地产需求进一步大幅下滑、行业中小企业出清不及预期，原燃材料价格上涨。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 17 日 看好（维持） 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 房价继续走弱，博弈价值再起：——建筑 | 2025-06-18 | | --- | --- | | 建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 行业需求仍偏弱，关注新兴材料产业：— | 2025-05-29 | | —建筑建材行业跟踪 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The external environment's uncertainty is increasing, and the continuation of loose monetary policy is expected, with the overall expected return rate for society trending downward in the medium to long term. The effectiveness of low-volatility dividend strategies is likely to persist. The public fund reform is expected to assist banks in achieving excess returns as the allocation style returns to normal [3][26] - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to alleviated pressure on other non-interest income growth [3][26] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Two main investment lines are currently being focused on: 1. Preparing for the anticipated reduction in insurance preset rates in Q3 2025 by investing in high-dividend banks, with recommendations to pay attention to China Construction Bank (601939, not rated), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, not rated), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) [4][27] 2. Continuing to favor small and medium-sized banks that have performed strongly since the beginning of the year, with recommendations to focus on Industrial Bank (601166, not rated), CITIC Bank (601998, not rated), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) [4][27] Financial Data Insights - In June 2025, the social financing (社融) year-on-year growth was 8.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and the monthly increment was 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 494.2 billion yuan [9][10] - The increase in loans was primarily driven by corporate short-term loans, with total loans growing by 7.1% year-on-year in June 2025, and the monthly increment was 2.24 trillion yuan, also surpassing expectations [15][20] - M1 growth accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in June 2025, with M2 growth at 8.3%, indicating a narrowing gap between M2 and M1 growth rates [20][21] Structural Changes in Financing - The increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds and loans, with government bonds increasing by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year [11][10] - Corporate direct financing also saw a year-on-year increase of 36.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a rise in bond financing [11][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The sports apparel sector is expected to continue outperforming the overall apparel market in the second half of the year, with a persistent K-shaped differentiation trend [3][8] - High-end sports outdoor brands are experiencing significant growth, while value-oriented brands are showing resilience [8] - The K-shaped differentiation reflects the segmentation of domestic consumption, creating investment opportunities at both ends of the market [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on Anta Sports (02020, Buy) due to its internationalization and multi-brand operational capabilities, along with several distinctive high-end brands [3] - Other companies to watch include 361 Degrees (01361, Not Rated), Xtep International (01368, Buy), and Tabo (06110, Hold) [3] Market Performance - In June, the retail sales growth for clothing, shoes, and textiles was 1.9%, with a year-to-date growth of 3.1% [8] - Major Hong Kong sports brands reported second-quarter revenue growth rates between low single digits to 10%, with overall growth for the first half mostly in the mid-single to 10% range, outperforming the overall apparel market [8] Consumer Trends - High-end outdoor brands like DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT under Anta saw growth rates of 50%-55% and 60%-65% respectively in Q2 and the first half of the year [8] - Xtep's Saucony brand also reported over 20% growth in Q2 and over 30% in the first half [8] - The demand for high-quality, professional, and health-oriented brands is increasing, leading to a shift in consumer preferences [8]