机械中盘蓝筹公司孕育投资机会 ——机械行业跟踪 核心观点 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为行业总需求平稳增长，且科技赋能的重要性继续提升，则稳定与成长更为均衡 的中盘蓝筹公司更为受益。我们看好机械板块的中盘蓝筹公司投资机会，我们认为锂电 设备、工业母机、天然气装备、叉车、气体&装备、运输设备、手工具、注塑机、缝纫 机、智慧煤机、光伏设备、检测、工控等领域龙头公司具备中盘蓝筹属性。部分相关标 的：海天精工(601882，增持)、杰瑞股份(002353，买入)、杭叉集团(603298，买入)、 伊之密(300415，买入)、中创智领(601717，买入)、中集车辆(301039，未评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、海外高利率拖累需求、海外贸易摩擦加剧、原材料价 格上涨拖累企业盈利 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 22 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 产业共识正在收敛，量产时刻 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 102.81 HKD per share, based on a PE valuation method [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The company's e-commerce commission revenue showed strong performance in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, driven by value-added services such as influencer distribution and marketing management [7]. - AI empowerment is expected to enhance advertising efficiency, contributing to stable growth in domestic advertising revenue, projected to grow by 15% in the second half of the year [7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, reflecting positive trends in e-commerce and controlled sales expenses [3][7]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 182.87 billion CNY, with further increases to 214.57 billion CNY in 2026 and 247.70 billion CNY in 2027 [3][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 126.90 billion CNY in 2024 to 142.05 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.9% [3][8]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 54.6% in 2024 to 56.8% in 2027, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [3][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at 4,048 billion CNY based on a PE ratio of 18x for 2026, translating to a market cap of 4,445 billion HKD [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 3.56 CNY in 2024 to 5.77 CNY in 2027, reflecting strong profit growth [3][8].

拼多多 PDD.O 公司研究 | 季报点评 外部负向影响减弱，基本面边际向好 ——拼多多 25Q3 季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年实现收入 4349/5045/5536 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 4477/4980/5401亿元），预计实现Non-GAAP归母净利润1168/1436/1688亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 1220/1469/1612 亿元）。采用 SOTP 估值计算公司合理估值为 2544 亿 USD（18031 亿 CNY），给予拼多多目标价 179.21 美元/ADS，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、海外业务政策风险、宏观经济不景气。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 247,639 | 393,836 | 434,885 | 504,513 | 553,555 | | 同比增长 (%) | 90% | 59% | 10% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $2.29 per ADS, based on an adjusted P/E average of comparable companies [3][6][11]. Core Insights - The new broadcasting policies are expected to positively impact the industry in the long term, leading to a gradual recovery in the company's ROI. The projected GAAP net profits for 2025 to 2027 are -331 million, 541 million, and 1.773 billion CNY respectively [3][5]. - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 6.68 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 8%, but slightly above Bloomberg's expectations. The gross margin was 18%, down 4 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - Membership service revenue for Q3 was 4.2 billion CNY, a 4% decrease year-over-year but a 3% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong performance from key content [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 27.259 billion, 28.410 billion, and 29.356 billion CNY, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -6.73%, 4.22%, and 3.33% [5][10]. - The GAAP net profit for 2025 is projected to be -331 million CNY, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [3][5]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 27.52% in 2023 to 21.02% in 2025, before gradually improving to 22.62% by 2027 [5][12]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 19, 2025, was $2.24, with a 52-week high of $2.84 and a low of $1.50 [6]. - The absolute performance over the past week was +3.7%, while the relative performance was +7.3% compared to the Nasdaq index [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the media industry [5] Core Insights - The official release of Nano banana2 marks a significant breakthrough by introducing a reasoning-based visual generation approach, transitioning from diffusion-based generation to reasoning-driven visual intelligence generation, which is closer to a reasoning engine with image generation capabilities [2] - The report highlights the importance of hardware-research-model-application integration in technology companies, recommending Alibaba-W (09988, Buy) and Google (ALPHABET)-A (GOOGL.O, Not Rated) as key investment targets [3] - The consistency of image generation is beneficial for maintaining video consistency, with AI video applications expected to accelerate penetration, suggesting a focus on Kuaishou-W (01024, Buy) and Meitu (01357, Buy) [3] - The report emphasizes the significance of companies with model capabilities and related industry chains, as well as those benefiting from foundational model iterations and improved downstream application experiences, recommending Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy) and others [3] Summary by Sections - **Technological Advancements**: Nano2's advancements include enhanced world understanding capabilities, improved text rendering, and increased image clarity up to 2K and 4K levels, which are crucial for professional outputs [8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on technology giants with a full-stack AI approach and highlights specific companies for investment based on their capabilities and market positioning [3] - **Market Trends**: The report notes that the integration of Gemini 3 Pro and NanoBanana 2 is expected to drive further growth in Google AI applications, indicating a positive trend in multi-modal investment opportunities [8]

京新药业 002020.SZ 公司研究 | 深度报告 | 创新破局，再攀高峰 | | --- | ——京新药业深度报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司核心业务或重要产品未来 1-2 年处于快速进展时期，根据公司三季报，我们调整 成品药收入，下调原料药收入、销售费用和研发费用，上调管理费用预测，调整 25- 27 年 EPS 为 0.91/1.07/1.25 元（原预测为 0.95/1.10/1.25 元）。根据可比公司平均 估值，给予公司 2026 年 22 倍市盈率，对应目标价 23.54 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 公司销售不达预期风险、带量采购影响公司业绩的不确定性风险、新药研发上市进度不 及预期风险和测算假设变动对结果影响的相关风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,999 | 4,159 | 4,279 | 4,714 | 5,363 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | ...

| | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -3.79 | -9.39 | 10.4 | 9.23 | | 相对表现% | -2.55 | -11.03 | 1.76 | -6.14 | | 沪深 300% | -1.24 | 1.64 | 8.64 | 15.37 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 韩潇锐 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | | | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 富创精密 688409.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 买入（维持） | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the copper industry is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with copper prices likely to rise due to increased demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers. The company's expansion projects are anticipated to enhance its profitability and resource self-sufficiency [4][12][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with a smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. It has developed a comprehensive copper industry chain covering resource exploration, smelting, and processing [20][21]. Copper Product Segment - The report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise, and there is a marginally positive outlook for smelting fees, which could enhance profit elasticity. The company is set to benefit from the expected increase in copper prices and improved smelting fees due to supply constraints [4][12][10]. - The Mirador copper mine expansion is projected to increase the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs, while the completion of the green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park is expected to expand smelting capacity [4][12]. Other Segments - The company is focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, has been listed separately and is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the AI and electronic communication sectors [4][12]. - The precious metals segment, particularly gold, is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, supported by deteriorating dollar credit conditions [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027. Based on a comparable company PE of 16X for 2026, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set [5][7].

Amer 三季度业绩优异 多品牌战略带来更多 经营韧性 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 和 6.02 元（原预测为 4.80、5.54 和 6.21 元），参考 可比公司，给予 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 112.89 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港 币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：消费终端复苏缓慢、运动服饰行业潮流变化及竞争加剧等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,573 | 86,489 | 95,347 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,143 | 20,123 | 22,545 | | 同比增长 ( ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, the US real GDP recorded a high growth rate of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 expectations reaching 4%[6] - The divergence in opinions regarding the US economic outlook is increasing, with recession risks becoming more pronounced[10] Employment and Consumption Dynamics - The US job market is showing signs of accelerated decline, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, indicating a near-recession performance[11] - Despite the deteriorating job market, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.7% to Q2 GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 2.74% in August[19][24] Income and Wealth Effects - Nominal disposable income growth for US residents remains stable at around 4.6%, supported by a 5% increase in wage income and an 8.5% rise in government transfer payments[28][31] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices has led to a historical high in household net worth, reaching $197 trillion in Q2 2025, with a ratio of net worth to disposable income at 782%[35][40] Structural Consumption Resilience - High-income households are primarily driving consumption resilience, with their spending growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households, which saw a cumulative increase of only 7.9% compared to 16.7% for high-income households since 2018[62][65] - The concentration of wealth among high-income groups is evident, with the top 1% holding nearly 50% of their assets in stocks and mutual funds, while low-income households are more reliant on real estate[45][48] Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of consumption resilience is contingent on the continuation of the technology cycle and its impact on income and wealth effects[69] - Risks include potential job losses in large enterprises, which could exacerbate the decline in consumer spending if high-income job losses occur[77][81]