计算机行业投资策略周报：三季报预期差较少、政策利好方向着眼长期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - Risk appetite and liquidity have fluctuated sharply in the past week, leading to significant declines in the computer industry, which is sensitive to these factors [7] - Recent policy statements indicate limited content related to the technology industry, focusing more on long-term competitiveness rather than immediate demand-side funding support. Short-term demand for the To G sector is not expected to see significant growth, but companies focused on enhancing core competitiveness will have long-term incentives [7][8] - The overall industry outlook for Q3/Q4 is expected to be flat, with no large-scale changes in demand signals in the medium term, thus the industry will continue to rely on trading dynamics in the short term [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Insights - Policies such as "tax deductions for R&D expenses" and "tax reductions for technology achievements" have been reiterated, benefiting companies focused on R&D, including traditional application software, cloud services, and AI chips. This will create a financial and valuation gap between leading companies and general system integration and customized technology service companies [8] - Tax incentives for advanced manufacturing enterprises will benefit industrial software and enterprise application companies, reinforcing the trend of manufacturing industry upgrades and alleviating excessive market concerns about downstream prosperity [8] - The healthcare and education sectors are expected to receive more support, with increased information technology budgets [8] Key Focus Areas 1. Financial IT - The performance of stock trading software companies is expected to recover if market trading sentiment improves, despite a decline in total revenue in the first half of 2024 [9] - The importance of trading systems is increasing, with capital market IT companies expected to see strong recovery as industry sentiment improves [9] 2. Domestic AI Computing Power - The domestic AI computing power supply chain is expected to stabilize after Q3 2024, with ongoing advancements in AI chip development [10] - The valuation levels of domestic AI computing power companies have fluctuated significantly, driven more by market liquidity and risk appetite than by fundamentals [11] 3. Industrial Software - The performance of domestic industrial software products is improving, with government policies supporting the replacement of overseas competitors [12] - The valuation of industrial software companies is expected to improve in the short term, but remains low in a longer-term perspective [12] 4. Smart Vehicles - The smart driving sector is influenced by overall vehicle sales and the penetration rate of smart technology, with expectations for recovery in vehicle sales due to supportive policies [13][14] 5. Healthcare IT - The demand for healthcare IT is expected to grow due to policy support and internal management needs within hospitals [15] - The healthcare IT sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, indicating potential for recovery [15] 6. Education Informatization - The education sector is seeing increased budget allocations, with a focus on smart education technologies [16][17] 7. Narrow-Scope Trust Creation - The trust creation industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance [18] 8. Harmony Operating System - The Harmony ecosystem is expanding, with significant growth in device numbers and ongoing projects enhancing its market presence [19]