英大证券：金点策略晨报—每日报告-20241016
British Securities·2024-10-16 13:35

Market Overview - The overall index still has upward potential, closely monitor changes in trading volume and the strength of incremental policies [1][4] - The market's ability to rise again depends on liquidity changes and policy stimuli, with a focus on whether trading volume can return to 2 trillion [1][4] - Incremental fiscal policy expectations may significantly impact the market, with a potential release of such policies anticipated [1][4] Industry Insights - Aerospace, multi-financial, software development, cement and building materials, consumer electronics, and other sectors showed strong performance, while mining sectors lagged [2] - The aerospace and military concept stocks surged, driven by geopolitical developments, with a notable increase in military sector performance since 2020 [2][3] - The defense budget in China is expected to grow steadily, with increases projected at 6.6%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 7.2%, and 7.2% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong support for the military industry [3] Electronic Sector Analysis - The electronic sector saw significant gains, particularly in Huawei's products and AI mobile phones, with a recovery expected in consumer electronics demand [3][4] - The electronic industry faced a downturn in 2022, with a 36.54% decline, but is anticipated to rebound as consumer demand recovers post-pandemic [3][4] - IDC has raised its forecast for mobile phone deliveries in 2024 to 1.23 billion units, with AI phones expected to capture an 18% market share [4] Future Market Predictions - The market is expected to experience short-term volatility after a significant rise, but there is potential for further upward movement if trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion [6][7] - Incremental fiscal policy is anticipated to be implemented soon, with the magnitude of these policies being a key point of divergence [6][7] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors sensitive to liquidity, such as finance and real estate, while also considering high-quality companies with strong governance and cash flow [5]