观点： 总量视角 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 短期 3600 点附近或仍有震荡，之后如何演绎呢？ 【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，短期 3600 点附近或仍有反复，保持理性，对持续大涨的部 分题材股择机逢高减持，逢低布局科技成长弹性领域。市场走势如我们预期，周 一沪深三大指数开盘后震荡走高，创业板指数明显偏强，而沪指则保持高位平台 震荡。临近午盘，指数一度回落，但午后快速回升下两市强势翻红。总体呈现震 荡偏强格局。盘面上看，雅下水电概念及煤炭、钢铁等周期板块回调，券商、保 险等大金融护盘对冲前期热点退潮影响，托底指数，科技股出现小幅补涨。 短期 3600 点附近或仍有震荡，之后会如何演绎呢？从目前情况来看，市场 大概率会进入一段震荡整理的周期。在这个周期内，指数可能会在 3600 点上下 进行反复波动，以消化前期积累的压力。随着市场的自我调整和修复，以及潜在 利好因素的出现，市场情绪有望逐步企稳。若后续能出现持续的热点板块，吸引 资金入场，成交得到有效放大，指数或许能突破 3600 点的束缚，开启新的上行 空间；反之，若市场缺乏有力支撑，指数可能会向下 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 7 月 28 日 短期 3600 点附近或仍有反复，科技成长股或存在结构性机会 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五沪深三大指数沪深开盘涨跌不一，开盘后小幅冲高便迎来回落。盘面 上看，雅下水电概念股及建材、工程机械、钢铁、有色、煤炭等板块出现回调。 午后，三大指数弱势震荡，不过，科创板却迎来大涨，半导体、泛 AI 概念等板 块走强，这或许标明短期市场正逐步转向科技股，一些中小盘股科技成长股可能 存在短期结构性机会。全天来看，市场震荡回落，在整体上行趋势下，沪指又失 守了 3600 点。 沪指已连续三日在 3600 点上方出现盘中回落情况，这一现象深刻反映出该 点位附近多空双方的分歧加大。此前沪指持续上行并连续突破 3500 点和 3600 点， 目前在 3600 点附近反复。在连续三日盘中回落以及成交小幅萎缩的背景下，短 期内指数以整理为主的可能性更大。一方面，上方套牢盘压力需要时间消化，连 续的盘中回落也让市场信心受到一定影响，恢复需要过程；另一方面，市场热点 切换快，雅下水电概念及相关板块上周五全线回调，半导体、AI 应用、医疗器械 ...

2025 年 7 月 25 日 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 沪指站上 3600 点，短期上方的压力较大，后市密切关注成交量变化 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四沪指站上 3600 点。盘面上看，虽然收盘上涨，但盘中也一度回落，说 明市场在此位置有分歧。不过，当前市场尚未出现明显走弱迹象，汇金等资金的 持续在场提供了支撑，指数回落时的承接力度依然较强。市场情绪虽有波动，但 整体仍处于积极区间，两市成交额维持在 1.8 万亿元上方，显示资金参与度未显 著下降。这意味着，短期盘中回落可能仍是洗盘性质。从技术面看，短期 3600 点上方的压力较大，堆积着大量历史套牢盘。如今指数再度逼近这一区间，套牢 盘解套离场的压力与新增资金入场的动力形成对抗。后市密切关注成交量变化， 若后续成交量不能持续放大，难以承接套牢盘抛压，很可能引发进一步的冲高回 落。 中期角度看，在关税谈判结果大概率向好、政策持续发力和流动性环境整体 性改善的推动下，A 股将呈现"震荡慢牛"格局，结构性机会丰富，对选股能力和 节奏把握提出更高要求。后市需密切关注主要经济体关税谈判进程及结果（尤其 中美）、三季度政策窗口期 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 短期 3600 点附近或有分歧，中期震荡慢牛格局不变，短期规避涨幅过 高的题材股 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪指 3600 点得而复失，两市成交额突破 1.8 万亿元。盘面上看，沪指 突破 3600 点后出现回落值得警惕。短期来看，市场在快速放量冲顶过程中，阶 段性获利盘有落袋为安的需求，且 3600 点附近存在大量历史套牢盘，若后续量 能不能维持，短期很可能引发进一步的震荡。当前市场分化行情加剧，指数上涨 时个股表现不佳，周三 4000 多只个股下跌。 中期角度看，在关税谈判结果大概率向好、政策持续发力和流动性环境整体 性改善的推动下，A 股将呈现"震荡慢牛"格局，结构性机会丰富，对选股能力和 节奏把握提出更高要求。后市需密切关注主要经济体关税谈判进程及结果（尤其 中美）、三季度政策窗口期（财政发力）和美联储货币政策转向时点。 总之，3600 点是市场情绪与趋势的重要分水岭。短期市场可能因获利了结和 外部扰动出现技术性回调。但在政策托底、产业升级及增量资金推动下，中期震 荡上行趋势未改。 请务必阅读最后一页的 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 7 月 23 日 后市震荡向上或是主基调，持续大涨的部分题材股可择机适度逢高减持 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 近期晨报经常提醒，后市震荡偏强仍是主基调，结构性机会丰富。关注反内 卷主线：光伏、电池、储能、建材、煤炭、钢铁、有色等产业。周二晨报提醒， 传统板块的修复行情仍有望延续，投资者可关注直接受益于大型基建的细分领域 和基本面扎实的低估值龙头。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数震荡上涨，周二沪深三大指数继续 震荡上行。盘面上，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（雅下水电）概念股连续大涨，另 外，建材、工程机械以及钢铁、有色、煤炭等板块连续走强。 周一周二雅下水电概念全线大涨，受周末该工程开工利好的刺激，该工程总 投资约 1.2 万亿元，如此大的投资规模彻底提振市场。此举不仅带动水电板块， 亦会带动西藏地区的经济发展，并带动全国就业，与此同时，对有色、钢铁等行 业也带来支撑。对于经济和市场情绪皆构成 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 后市 A 股震荡向上或是主基调，关注传统板块中绩优低估值龙头 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 近期晨报经常提醒，后市震荡偏强仍是主基调，结构性机会丰富。关注反内 卷主线：光伏、电池、储能、建材、煤炭、钢铁、有色等产业。市场走势如我们 预期，周一沪深三大指数开盘后震荡上行，沪指以及创业板指再创年内新高，而 深成指也突破 11000 点整数关口。盘面上，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（雅下水电） 概念全线大涨，另外，建材、工程机械以及钢铁、有色、煤炭等板块走强。 周一雅下水电概念全线大涨，受周末该工程开工利好的刺激，该工程总投资 约 1.2 万亿元，如此大的投资规模彻底提振市场。此举不仅带动水电板块，亦会 带动西藏地区的经济发展，并带动全国就业，与此同时，对有色、钢铁等行业也 带来支撑。对于经济和市场情绪皆构成利好。 另外，周一大涨的板块多属传统行业。我们认为，雅下水电的正式开工确实 对 A 股传统行业形成直接催化，但传统板块的全面启动是多重因素共振的结果。 不可否认，雅下水电作为全球最大水电项目，直接利好建材、钢铁、有色金属、 电力设备、 ...

Core Views - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" pattern in the second half of 2025, with structural opportunities prevailing and a rotation in market styles, where both small-cap and large-cap stocks will have opportunities, but individual stocks will show divergence [2][3][14] - The macroeconomic environment and monetary policy are crucial variables affecting A-share trends, with the U.S. tariff policy causing disruptions to the global economy, leading to potential pressure on domestic export growth [2][13] - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on whether the shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven growth can be successfully achieved, as the market's undervaluation has significantly eased [2][13] A-share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to show a trend of upward fluctuations, supported by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy efforts, and overall improvements in liquidity [3][14] - Investors are advised to pay close attention to the progress and outcomes of tariff negotiations among major economies, the fiscal stimulus window in the third quarter, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift [3][14][17] Investment Opportunities - Key investment directions include: 1. **Technology Innovation**: Focus on sectors such as robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued concepts [3][15][17] 2. **Anti-Competition**: Investment in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, energy storage, new energy vehicles, building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [3][15][17] 3. **Consumer Upgrade and Policy Beneficiaries**: Areas such as pharmaceutical innovation, consumer healthcare, equipment upgrades, smart home, cross-border e-commerce, and industrial upgrades [3][15][17] Market Performance Review - The market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.17% in the previous week [6][16] - The performance of various sectors showed a mix, with cyclical stocks like rare earths and energy metals gaining traction, while gaming and diversified finance sectors faced corrections [5][6][7] Sector-Specific Insights - **Rare Earths**: The strategic value of the rare earth industry is expected to increase, with demand continuing to grow amid potential easing of export restrictions [7][8] - **Pharmaceuticals**: The pharmaceutical sector is showing strong performance, driven by supportive policies for innovative drugs and a favorable commercial environment for domestic innovations [8][12] - **Robotics**: The robotics industry is experiencing significant growth, with strong demand and supportive government policies, making it a long-term investment direction [10][12] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with structural opportunities available across various sectors, and investors are encouraged to adopt a selective approach in their investment strategies, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and growth potential [3][14][15]

Core Views - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a structural rally, with a focus on sectors with solid earnings support, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and technology sectors like robotics and CPO [2][11] - The upcoming important meeting is expected to emphasize macroeconomic policy adjustments, with potential increases in funding for infrastructure and support for strategic emerging industries such as AI and semiconductors [3][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices in the A-share market collectively rose, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing stronger performance, while financial stocks weighed on the Shanghai Composite Index [5][11] - The market sentiment remains active, with a total trading volume of 15,394 billion, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,516.83 points, up 0.37% [6] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, driven by supportive policies for innovative drugs and a favorable environment for commercialization, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of 2025 [7][11] - The optical communication module and CPO sectors are also highlighted as having strong growth potential, supported by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades [8][11] - The aerospace and defense sector is expected to remain attractive, with government support for modernization and increased defense budgets, alongside geopolitical tensions that may act as catalysts for growth [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on several key areas for potential investment: 1. Technology innovation sectors such as robotics, AI, and digital economy [4][13] 2. Industries benefiting from de-involution, including renewable energy and new energy vehicles [4][13] 3. Areas related to consumption upgrades and policy benefits, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and smart home devices [4][13] 4. Stocks with expected strong mid-year performance, although the intensity of speculation may decrease as earnings forecasts conclude [4][13]

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience limited short-term fluctuations, with a focus on upcoming important meetings and policy directions for investment opportunities [1][9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a slight decline in major indices and a decrease in trading volume, indicating reduced willingness for new capital inflows [1][6] Market Overview - On July 16, the major indices showed slight declines, with trading volume decreasing to just above 1.4 trillion yuan, down from over 1.7 trillion yuan on July 11, suggesting a weakening interest from new investors [1][9] - The market is currently in a phase of sector rotation, with the previously leading low-valuation dividend sectors showing signs of fatigue, which is limiting upward movement in indices [1][5] Key Focus Areas - The upcoming important meetings are anticipated to emphasize increased macroeconomic policy adjustments, with potential funding directed towards infrastructure, especially new infrastructure projects [2][9] - Monetary policy may involve a comprehensive use of tools to maintain reasonable liquidity and guide funds towards key sectors, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [2][9] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to consider the following sectors for potential investment: 1. **Technology Innovation**: Focus on robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy sectors, while being cautious of high valuations and speculative investments [2][10] 2. **Anti-Competition Sectors**: Including solar energy, batteries, energy storage, new energy vehicles, construction materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] 3. **Consumer Upgrade and Policy Beneficiaries**: Such as innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer healthcare, smart home devices, and cross-border e-commerce [2][10] 4. **Exceeding Mid-Year Performance Expectations**: While there have been opportunities in companies exceeding mid-year performance expectations, the momentum for such stocks may diminish as earnings forecasts become public [3][10] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown significant growth, particularly in innovative drugs, with expectations for continued improvement in the second half of 2025 due to favorable market conditions and demographic trends [7][8] - The robotics industry has also experienced substantial growth, with a reported increase in sales and production, supported by government policies and technological advancements [8][9]

Core Views - The report indicates a short-term caution against index fluctuations or declines, but maintains a medium-term upward trend in the market [2][5][9] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips while being alert to changes in market rhythm [4][10] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the market showed signs of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a drop while the ChiNext Index rose significantly, driven by a few leading stocks in the AI and optical communication sectors [3][6][9] - The report notes that the recent market performance reflects a structural shift rather than a complete transition to growth stocks, as the rise in the ChiNext is largely supported by a small number of stocks [3][10] Investment Strategies - The report suggests three main investment lines: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected mid-year performance forecasts, focusing on those with improving earnings expectations [4][10] 2. Technology sectors including robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued stocks lacking fundamental support [4][10] 3. Stocks that have experienced significant declines, particularly in the new energy and brokerage sectors, which may present buying opportunities on pullbacks [4][10] Sector Highlights - The AI sector is highlighted as a leading investment theme, with significant growth expected in AI applications and hardware, driven by advancements in computing power and the proliferation of AI models [7][8] - The optical communication module sector is also noted for its potential high growth in the second half of 2025, supported by AI computing needs and data center upgrades [8]