英大证券研究所证券研究报告 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四 A 股市场呈现强劲上行态势，科技板块成为绝对主线，其中，创业板指 大涨站上 3000 点，科创 50 指数更是大涨超 5%领跑全场，尽显科技属性的强势。 从细分领域来看，CPO、光通信模块、PCB、液冷服务器等概念股大幅反弹、半导 体芯片板块同步走高。此外，人行机器人概念与 6G 板块也不甘示弱，科技领域 多点开花，形成强大的板块联动效应。 后市有望呈现震荡牛市的格局，理由如下：一是科技股再度成为引领方向的 主线；二是美联储降息预期升温。美国 8 月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比下滑 0.1%， 这一数据表明通胀压力正在缓解，进一步提振了市场对美联储放松货币政策的预 期；三是券商板块再度走强；四是成交量温和回升。周四两市成交额回到 2.4 万 亿上方，市场情绪回暖。尽管有上述利好，不过，近期题材板块轮动速度快，操 作难度大，另外，科创 50 为代表的成长板块估值已处于相对高位，且当前增量 资金仍相 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently experiencing a typical oscillation adjustment during a bull market, lacking sufficient strength to push the index significantly higher while also not having factors that would lead to a deep adjustment, resulting in a stalemate situation [3][10] - Attention should be paid to three main factors that could break this stalemate: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the performance of the brokerage sector benefiting from policy stimuli, and changes in trading volume [3][10] A-share Market Analysis - The trading volume is a crucial indicator of market sentiment, with a sustained volume below 2 trillion indicating continued oscillation and adjustment, while a recovery above 2.5 trillion could signal renewed upward momentum [4][10] - On the trading day analyzed, the A-share market showed mixed performance with a total trading volume of 19,781 billion, and the major indices experienced slight increases [5][10] Sector Performance - The mining sector saw gains due to significant breakthroughs in oil and uranium resource exploration, supported by favorable international oil price movements [6] - The cultural media sector, including gaming and interactive short dramas, has shown strong performance, with a notable 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, although it faced a 15.58% pullback in the third quarter [7] - The telecommunications sector, particularly 5G and 6G, is expected to benefit from advancements in technology and government support, with significant opportunities for related companies in the secondary market [8][9] Investment Strategy - A diversified strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality companies with clear industry prospects during short-term adjustments, reducing exposure to overvalued sectors, and increasing holdings in undervalued, high-dividend assets [11]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 A 股市场内部分化，缺乏引领方向的核心主线，后市密切关注成交量变 化 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，结合历史牛市行情中调整周期的规律，短期仍可能出现震荡 反复。市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数震荡休整。创业板指数持续两天 呈现温和调整，两市成交额缩至 2.1 万亿出头，资金观望氛围渐浓，市场正从前 期的活跃状态逐步过渡到冷静阶段。 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 具体看，市场内部的结构性分化较为明显。半导体、光通信模块板块进入调 整期，与之形成对比的是固态电池概念板块，凭借技术突破预期和广阔的产业前 景，呈现出相对强势的态势。但这种强势未能有效辐射至整个新能源赛道，未能 形成足够的板块带动力，市场暂时缺乏能够凝聚人气、引领方向的核心主线。短 期不确定性增加的背景下，部分资金开始转向防御性配置，近期黄金相关个股呈 现温和上涨，这一方面与国际金价走势相呼应，另一方面也反映出资金在寻找安 全边际，希望通过传统避险资产降低市场波动带来的影响。 成交量的变化 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 9 日 A 股市场内部分化，结构性机会持续涌现，踏准板块轮动节奏 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 在上周五大反攻的基础上，周一沪深两市延续回升势头小幅上涨，但市场内 部分化依旧显著。算力龙头持续大跌，直接拖累创业板指。不过，资金从算力板 块流出后并未离场，而是快速寻找新的投资方向，能源金属、人行机器人相关概 念崛起，除此之外，航运港口、医疗器械、化肥等板块也展现出较好的上涨动能， 成为承接流出资金的重要领域，市场热点切换节奏加快，结构性机会持续涌现。 尽管当前市场情绪有所提振，指数存在继续反弹的可能，但需要注意的是， 此次调整是牛市启动以来的首次显著调整，结合历史牛市行情中调整周期的规 律，短期仍可能出现震荡反复，属于牛市途中的正常休整。 从中长期来看，在流动性宽松基调未变、经济回升向好趋势明确、产业政策 持续发力的背景下，市场在经历调整与风格切换后，仍具备继续上行的基础和动 力，此次调 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong rebound last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully returning to the 3800-point mark and the ChiNext Index soaring by 6.55% [2][5][19] - The market showed two main characteristics: a comprehensive rise in the new energy sector and a return of funds to technology stocks, with significant rebounds in core stocks like CPO and PCB [2][17] Policy and Economic Environment - The policy environment remains favorable, with the Ministry of Commerce indicating that measures to expand service consumption will be introduced in September [2][18] - The liquidity environment continues to be loose, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery, as evidenced by the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.4% in August, indicating an acceleration in production activities [2][18] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Despite the strong rebound, the volume was somewhat reduced, indicating a cautious investor sentiment and a lack of willingness to chase higher prices [3][18] - The market is expected to experience some fluctuations as it digests profit-taking and position-clearing pressures, with the ability to release volume being a key variable for determining the height of the rebound [3][18] Sector Performance - The new energy sector saw significant gains, with strong performances in battery, energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment [7][8] - The precious metals sector also experienced a rise, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [9] - Consumer stocks showed temporary strength, supported by new rounds of consumption vouchers being issued in various cities [10] - The industrial mother machine concept stocks remained active, benefiting from government policies aimed at promoting high-end manufacturing [11] Investment Strategy - For companies with strong fundamentals and clear industry prospects, short-term adjustments present opportunities for low-cost positioning [3][18] - It is advisable to reduce allocations in sectors that have seen excessive price increases and high valuations, while increasing exposure to undervalued, high-dividend assets [3][18]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 5 日 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 短期震荡调整或并未结束，操作上适当防御或休息 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，短期市场的调整，三方面原因的结果，从短时间周期来看， 市场或维持高位进行震荡休整，耐心等待市场企稳的信号。操作上，适当的防御 或休息。打算低吸的投资者耐心等待调整结束；对近期涨幅过大且缺乏基本面强 支撑的标的，可降低风险敞口；另外，可将注意力转向有业绩支撑的低估值板块 或防御性板块。 市场走势如我们预期，周四沪深三大指数继续下跌休整。盘面上看，市场调 整呈现出明显的结构性特征。高位热门板块如 CPO、半导体等出现大幅回调，而 部分低估值板块和防御性板块则显示出抗跌性，甚至出现逆势上涨。这种分化反 映了资金在板块间的有序轮动，而非全面性的悲观出逃。 尽管短期出现调整，但政策面、资金面和基本面三大支柱依然稳固。一是政 策面向好趋势未变。商务部表示 9 月将出台 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 4 日 【A 股大势研判】 周三晨报提醒，高位股的回落在一定程度上影响到短期的市场情绪，短期板 块和个股的分化有所加剧，这将在短时间内影响整个市场的节奏。从短时间周期 来看，市场或维持高位进行窄幅的震荡休整，操作上，适当的防御也是必不可少 的。市场走势如我们预期，周三沪指及深成指全天走低，延续周二以来的调整， 而创业板则保持相对强势。 整体看，短期市场的调整，是多方面原因的结果：一是部分板块和个股大幅 上涨后，技术上存在调整需求；二是部分机构和个人投资者从高估值板块获利了 结，转向低估值滞涨板块，这一调仓换股过程也会引发市场波动；三是前期三大 指数持续刷新年内新高，且两市成交动辄在 2.8 万亿左右的天量水平，后续需要 资金面的持续净流入来支撑，也相对困难，不进则退。 从短时间周期来看，市场或维持高位进行震荡休整，耐心等待市场企稳的信 号。而从长周期来看，周线、月线级别 K 线走势仍保持着多头排列，股指在技术 形态上仍保持着上行趋势，因此，投资者不必过于畏惧于短期的市场调整，短暂 的技术性回踩，有助于市场中期继续向上突破。 操作上，适当 ...

Core Views - The report indicates that after a brief technical pullback, the market is likely to maintain a high-level narrow range oscillation, suggesting a defensive approach in operations [2][10]. Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the A-share market collectively adjusted, with defensive sectors like gold and banking stocks strengthening, while most technology stocks, including CPO, semiconductors, and communications, experienced pullbacks [4][10]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened recently due to diverging market sentiment and funds, leading to short-term resistance for the indices [2][10]. - Despite the adjustments, the overall market still shows short-term profit-making potential, with high market sentiment, although sector and stock differentiation has intensified [2][10]. Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as gold and banking stocks have shown strong performance, while technology sectors like CPO and semiconductors have faced declines [4][10]. - The gold sector has been buoyed by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased investment demand [7][8]. - The industrial mother machine concept stocks have also seen significant gains, supported by favorable government policies and a strong performance in recent quarters [9]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a dynamic optimization of holdings, focusing on stocks with strong performance backed by earnings, while reducing exposure to stocks that have risen sharply without fundamental support [3][11]. - Attention should be directed towards undervalued sectors or defensive stocks with solid earnings support, as well as blue-chip stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments [3][11].

沪深三大指数持续上行后， 9 月行情或需要二手准备 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 【A 股大势研判】 周一沪深三大指数继续延续上行趋势。创业板指涨幅超 2%，深成指涨幅超 1%，且均刷新年内新高。盘面上看，贵金属、创新药、半导体等板块领涨。进入 9 月，市场可能需要两手准备：一方面要留意指数可能的继续拉升，另一方面要 提防指数阶段回落，适当的防御也是必不可少的。 首先，在市场流动性充裕、成交热情高涨以及板块轮动之际，一旦金融股补 涨，指数或迎来新的拉升。尤其是券商板块。券商板块受益于市场流动性宽松及 成交额高位。如果金融股一旦补涨，指数可能会出现短期快速拉升。 其次，在此前市场急跌以及修复过程中，目前沪指上行动能略有衰减。如果 指数阶段回落，短期防御也是必要的。近期市场连续上行，三大指数持续刷新年 内新高，需要资金面的持续净流入来支撑，否则市场波动可能会加大，所以也要 谨防短期可能的回落。 操作上 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is entering a phase of slow bull market, with a higher probability of market fluctuations after a period of rapid growth [2][5][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93 points, up 14.33 points, with a trading volume of 12.22 billion [6][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index reached new highs for the year, indicating strong market momentum [2][6] Sector Analysis Battery Sector - The battery sector saw significant gains, driven by strong performance in lithium battery-related stocks, with a focus on solid-state batteries and new energy vehicles [8][9] - The global push for carbon neutrality continues to drive demand for lithium, photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage [9] Alcohol Sector - The alcohol sector is benefiting from domestic consumption recovery, with policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending [9][10] - The report highlights the potential of the "silver economy" and "self-consumption" trends among younger consumers [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector is experiencing upward momentum due to expectations of interest rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions [10] - Factors such as central bank gold purchases and a weaker dollar are contributing to the bullish outlook for gold prices [10] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remains a long-term investment opportunity, supported by national policies and increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution trends and the potential for growth in the semiconductor industry [11] Communication Equipment Sector - The communication equipment sector is poised for growth with advancements in 5G and upcoming 6G technologies [12] - The integration of AI with communication technologies is expected to enhance data transmission efficiency [12] Optical Communication Modules - The optical communication module sector is likely to remain in a high prosperity cycle, driven by AI computing and data center upgrades [13][14] Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector - The rare earth sector is expected to see strategic value due to supply constraints and increasing demand [14] - Recent regulatory measures are likely to impact the supply dynamics of rare earth materials [14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests dynamic optimization of holdings, focusing on stocks with strong earnings support and good technical patterns [3][16] - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [3][16]