从分化、收敛到共振：中美货币宽松周期的大类资产策略

Core Views - The report analyzes the patterns of the US economy and major asset classes during the 7 Fed rate cut cycles since 1984, highlighting that US bonds and gold typically outperform, while US stocks perform well during soft landings, and commodities like copper, crude oil, and CRB face downward pressure [1] - The current market outlook suggests that US stocks await trading opportunities post the November election, US bond yields are more likely to decline, the dollar is testing the 100 support level, gold remains a favorable allocation, Hong Kong stocks are benefiting from favorable conditions, and A-shares have confirmed a reversal, while the RMB awaits catalysts for active appreciation [1] 50BP Rate Cut Signal - The Fed's 50BP rate cut in September, combined with hawkish remarks, signals a soft landing scenario, with US-China monetary policies entering a synchronized easing phase [2] - The US economy remains in a soft landing zone with low recession risks, and another 50BP rate cut is expected within the year, with employment and economic data taking precedence over inflation [2] Overseas Asset Strategy - During rate cut cycles, US bonds and gold benefit, while industrial commodities face pressure [2] - US stocks: Perform well during soft landings but are currently at high levels, awaiting post-election opportunities and the return of rate cut trades, with focus on small caps, healthcare, real estate, and financial sectors [2] - US bonds: Face upward pressure after the first rate cut but are more likely to decline thereafter [2] - US dollar: Tends to depreciate during rate cut cycles, with a smaller depreciation magnitude during soft landings compared to recessions, and the 100 support level is key [2] - Commodities: Gold retains allocation value, while crude oil faces a tug-of-war between slowing demand and rising risk aversion [2] China Asset Strategy - During the initial phase of rate cuts, Chinese assets benefit, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming [2] - Hong Kong stocks: Historically, except for the last three recessionary rate cut cycles, Hong Kong stocks have risen over 20% during rate cut cycles, with favorable conditions in place and opportunities in the tech sector [2] - A-shares: Perform well around the first Fed rate cut, supported by domestic policy efforts, with the inflection point confirmed and upside dependent on fiscal stimulus [2] - RMB: Passive appreciation is nearing its end, awaiting active appreciation driven by policy and fundamental improvements [2] Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The report provides a detailed analysis of historical Fed rate cut cycles, including the 1984-1986 soft landing, 1989-1992 recession, 1995 soft landing, 1998 soft landing, 2001-2003 recession, 2007-2008 recession, and 2019-2020 soft landing followed by recession [7][10][12][15][18][21][23][26] - Key takeaways include the varying performance of assets during soft landings versus recessions, with US bonds and gold consistently outperforming, while equities and commodities show mixed results [7][10][12][15][18][21][23][26] Current US Economic Conditions - The US labor market has normalized, with low-end service jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels and a shift from labor shortages to surpluses [32] - Non-farm payroll data shows short-term resilience but a weakening trend, with government employment providing support [35] - Manufacturing PMI remains weak, while consumer and economic confidence have rebounded, supported by strong September non-farm payroll data [36] - Inventory levels are rising, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains high, indicating a lack of smooth inventory replenishment [37] - The housing market is cooling, with declining home prices and weak sales, although building permits show some improvement [38][40] Global Equity Markets - During the initial phase of rate cuts, non-US markets tend to benefit from US capital outflows, with the Hang Seng Index performing particularly well [54]