2024年9月进出口数据点评：进出口同比增速双双转弱

Economic Overview - In September 2024, China's exports totaled $303.71 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.60% and a year-on-year growth of 2.40%, which is significantly below market expectations of 5.94%[2] - Imports in September 2024 reached $222.00 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 2.01% and a year-on-year growth of 0.30%, also falling short of market expectations of 1.20%[3] - The trade surplus for September 2024 was $81.71 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.23%[2] Export Performance - In September 2024, 11 product categories positively contributed to export growth, a decrease of 9 categories from August, with machinery, ships, and automobiles being the main supports[2] - The export volume of steel increased by 26.0% and automobiles by 21.8%, both exceeding a 20% year-on-year increase[3] - The average export price of ships surged by 89.9% year-on-year, while only 6 out of 16 categories saw an increase in average export prices[3] Import Dynamics - Among 25 categories of imports, 15 recorded positive year-on-year growth, with soybeans (59.0%), aircraft over 2 tons (55.6%), and machine tools (50.5%) showing significant increases[3] - The average import price for 13 categories rose year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance in import pricing[3] Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding exports is expected to rise in Q4 2024 due to external factors such as U.S. inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may impact global trade dynamics[5] - Continued weak import performance alongside subdued domestic demand suggests a persistent trend of internal economic softness in China[5]