Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish investment rating for equities, particularly in the US and emerging markets, while recommending an overweight position in high yield (HY) credit compared to investment grade (IG) credit [2][3][12]. Core Insights - Economic growth indicators have shown positive surprises, leading to a bullish outlook as financial conditions have eased. The report draws parallels to historical periods of recovery from inflationary shocks, particularly the 1975/76 period [2][7][10]. - The report emphasizes a preference for risky assets, with a focus on equities and credit, while moving underweight on fixed income. Commodities are also highlighted, with a preference for base metals over precious metals [3][12][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - Growth leading indicators have risen, with a notable payrolls beat contributing to positive economic surprise indices. Financial conditions are currently supportive, with headline inflation below long-term averages [7][10][12]. Market Positioning - The report suggests a maximum bullish positioning in equities, particularly in US and emerging markets, while recommending a pro-risk stance in credit markets, favoring high yield over investment grade [12][13][24]. - Fixed income is underweighted, with a focus on peripheral EU markets for long positions [12][13]. Systematic Strategies - The report identifies that value and carry strategies in foreign exchange (FX) and equity momentum are favored in the current regime, while low-beta equities and cross-asset trend strategies are less favored [18][20][21]. - Carry strategies have rebounded significantly, particularly in bonds, following a period of underperformance [24][26]. Scenario Analysis - The analysis indicates that markets are operating under a soft-landing scenario, with equities performing well in this context, while fixed income and commodities show more concern regarding growth [16][17][18]. - The report highlights that a weak growth scenario or recession would be favorable for bonds, while equities may face challenges [16][17].
花旗：量化全球宏观策略_模型更新_更高增长和更宽松金融条件的风险偏好机制