Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating across equity regions to maximize diversification, with an Overweight (OW) stance on bonds and an Underweight (UW) on credit [3][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a cross-asset repricing of growth and inflation due to rising tariff risks, leading to a more defensive investment stance [1][7]. - US equity strategists have reduced their S&P 500 return forecasts to -5% for 3 months and +6% for 12 months, while European strategists have adjusted their forecasts to -6% for 3 months and +5% for 12 months [3][19]. - The average US tariff rate is expected to rise by 5 percentage points to 15%, with GDP growth revised down to 1% from 1.5% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook with US manufacturing PMI falling to 49.8, and inflation expectations rising, leading to a revised recession probability of 35% [1][2]. - European economists have also cut growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations, anticipating an ECB cut in July [1]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a shift to more defensive positions, recommending selective hedges due to elevated implied volatility across asset classes [3][6]. - The commodities team has raised their 2025 gold forecast to $3,300 per troy ounce, indicating a shift in diversification strategies towards gold and the Yen [2][19]. Market Performance - The report notes a decline in cross-asset pricing of growth across regions, with credit repricing growth risks more clearly [2][19]. - The Dollar has become more sensitive to the S&P 500, reducing its diversification potential, while gold and Yen have emerged as key diversifiers [2][19].

23 March 2025 | 12:23PM HKT Timothy Zhao We hosted Kingsoft Cloud (KC)'s CFO and IRD with investors in Hong Kong and virtually on Mar 21, post the company's 4Q24 results (Earnings Review). Investor questions were mostly centered around 1) outlook for demand and revenue from Xiaomi/Kingsoft, 2) details of AI revenue breakdown by customer/demand and unit economics, 3) AI investments including types of investments, domestic supply, etc., 4) competition. We believe our takeaways from the NDR support our more co ...

深海科技与军船对冲美 301 法案冲击，聚焦长和码头资产 出售进程 20240324 摘要 Q&A 美国 301 法案对集运和船舶行业的影响是什么？ 美国 301 法案的落地将对集运和船舶行业产生显著影响。尽管市场已经充分交 易了悲观预期，但如果 301 法案最终实施，美西码头的拥堵将导致运价进一步 上涨，并影响造船订单。具体而言，海洋联盟等主要航运联盟在美线上的航线 调整可能会导致码头吞吐量激增，美国码头难以消化这种增加的需求，从而进 一步推高集运价格。此外，中小型集装箱船租金也会因需求增加而上涨，特别 • 海洋联盟航线调整或致美国码头拥堵，推高集运价格，并增加对中小型集 装箱船的需求，尤其在东南亚航线上，导致租金上涨。301 法案落地可能 加剧这一趋势，因航运联盟或征用支线船用于欧美干线中转。 • 地中海航运收购长河并非基于中美对抗，而是出于商业协同，旨在提升码 头份额和服务品质，尤其是在美线上。若能妥善处理各方利益，收购成功 概率较高，对地中海航运具有显著商业价值。 • 贝莱德和基础设施投资集团对长河的投资方案，类似于涨之前的日本商社， 对港口板块估值定价产生影响，建议密切关注其方案细节。 • 美国对伊 ...

国联基金 谷德华直播间好久没有跟大家见面了我是国联基金的赵楠大家可能有一些朋友也认识我那么今天呢我会在这个交易时间呢这个跟大家聊一聊这个新年的这个股票股票市场的这个权益基金的投资以及大家看到了我们今天的这个题目是 就是当前的这种科技成长股的行情以及在这个科技成长股行情上表现的比较淋漓尽致的哪一部分资产呢就是咱们的这个恒生指数 恒生科技也就是说很多的护港深的基金其实今年表现的也是不错的整体上平均来看护港深类的基金比A股的这个股票性基金要更有优势一些那么大家也知道如果说这个市场呢 到了一个比较有机会的一个结构性的这个我们可能不用这个牛字来替代当然是说股票的这个投资效应赚钱效应非常明显的一个行情中如果大家认为实际上一个趋势的话实际上咱们在这个投资当中你选择一个最为犀利的这种锚就像我们去打仗这个肯定我们选的武器要更厉害那么 这样的话我们在整个的现在这种市场阶段才可能能够获得更多的这个潜在的一个投资收益所以我今天的题目也是用了这个科技成长板块或者说这个港股的这个这些品种那么其实也是代表着我的一个观念就是我认为在未来一段时间在未来一段时间整个这个市场上这个股市的这个趋势 大概率还是会延续而且呢如果你选择一个比较好的这个呃 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC with a price target raised to NT$1500 for December 2025, reflecting improved profitability and the likelihood of further outsourcing from Intel [4][10]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to experience strong revenue growth driven by AI momentum, particularly from its N3 and N2 process nodes, with projected revenue growth rates of 24% and 18% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [9][24]. - The potential for increased outsourcing from Intel due to delays in Intel's 18A ramp and TSMC's technology leadership is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with estimates suggesting that Intel revenues could peak at $5.5-6 billion in 2025/26 [2][12]. - Gross margins (GMs) are anticipated to improve, potentially reaching 59-60% by 2026, despite challenges from overseas fabs and other headwinds [1][21]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for TSMC have been adjusted, with 2025 revenue projected at NT$3,575 billion and 2026 at NT$4,217 billion [5][47]. - Adjusted EPS estimates for 2025 have been revised to NT$57.10, reflecting a 7% increase from previous estimates [5][47]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the strong demand for TSMC's N3 process node, with utilization expected to remain above 100% through 2025, driven by major customers including Apple and AMD [27][29]. - Datacenter AI revenues are projected to grow significantly, with a 93% increase expected in 2025, contributing to TSMC's overall revenue growth [24][25]. Competitive Positioning - TSMC's near-monopoly position in AI accelerators and edge AI, along with its strong process roadmap and packaging technology, positions it favorably in the semiconductor industry [9][10]. - The report notes that TSMC's pricing power is expected to enhance gross margins, further solidifying its competitive edge [9][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cyclical recovery in the semiconductor industry starting in mid-2025, which is expected to drive better utilizations for older nodes and contribute to TSMC's growth [11][42]. - The potential for further outsourcing from Intel could serve as a catalyst for TSMC's stock re-rating, with estimates suggesting an additional $10-12 billion in revenue from Intel outsourcing [16][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish investment rating for equities, particularly in the US and emerging markets, while recommending an overweight position in high yield (HY) credit compared to investment grade (IG) credit [2][3][12]. Core Insights - Economic growth indicators have shown positive surprises, leading to a bullish outlook as financial conditions have eased. The report draws parallels to historical periods of recovery from inflationary shocks, particularly the 1975/76 period [2][7][10]. - The report emphasizes a preference for risky assets, with a focus on equities and credit, while moving underweight on fixed income. Commodities are also highlighted, with a preference for base metals over precious metals [3][12][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - Growth leading indicators have risen, with a notable payrolls beat contributing to positive economic surprise indices. Financial conditions are currently supportive, with headline inflation below long-term averages [7][10][12]. Market Positioning - The report suggests a maximum bullish positioning in equities, particularly in US and emerging markets, while recommending a pro-risk stance in credit markets, favoring high yield over investment grade [12][13][24]. - Fixed income is underweighted, with a focus on peripheral EU markets for long positions [12][13]. Systematic Strategies - The report identifies that value and carry strategies in foreign exchange (FX) and equity momentum are favored in the current regime, while low-beta equities and cross-asset trend strategies are less favored [18][20][21]. - Carry strategies have rebounded significantly, particularly in bonds, following a period of underperformance [24][26]. Scenario Analysis - The analysis indicates that markets are operating under a soft-landing scenario, with equities performing well in this context, while fixed income and commodities show more concern regarding growth [16][17][18]. - The report highlights that a weak growth scenario or recession would be favorable for bonds, while equities may face challenges [16][17].

CK Hutchison Holdings Limited (OTCPK:CKHUY) Q2 2024 Results Conference Call August 15, 2024 5:00 AM ET Company Participants Frank Sixt - Group Finance Director, Deputy MD & Executive Director Dominic Lai - Deputy MD & Executive Director Victor Li - Chairman & Group Co-MD Operator Welcome to attended live webcast of CK Hutchison 2024 Interim Results Presentation. Today, our speakers are Mr. Victor Li, our Chairman, who will join us later. Mr. Frank Sixt, our Group Co-Managing Director and Group Finance Direc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology Inc. with an updated 12-month price target of $158, reflecting a potential upside of 21% based on the current after-hours price of $131 [20]. Core Insights - Micron's strong FY3Q results exceeded market expectations, with revenue of $6.8 billion, representing a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 82% year-over-year increase [6][7]. - The company is experiencing robust demand growth driven by advancements in AI and data center applications, with expectations for significant market share gains in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) by the end of CY2025 [8][9]. - Micron's management is confident in achieving substantial revenue targets for HBM, projecting several hundred million dollars in FY2024 and multiple billion dollars in FY2025 [8]. - The company reported a gross margin of 28% in FY3Q, up approximately 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to higher average selling prices (ASPs) [6][9]. - Micron's free cash flow (FCF) was $425 million in FY3Q, with forecasts of $0.8 billion, $3.6 billion, and $6.2 billion for CY2024, CY2025, and CY2026, respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY3Q revenue was $6.8 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 2%, with DRAM revenue of $4.7 billion accounting for 69% of total revenue [6][7]. - Non-GAAP EPS for FY3Q was reported at $0.62, surpassing both Goldman Sachs estimates and street expectations [6][7]. - The company guided FY4Q revenue to be $7.6 billion, which is 3% below Goldman Sachs estimates [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights multiple AI-related demand drivers, with expectations that a significant portion of PCs and smartphones will become AI-enabled, leading to increased DRAM content [9]. - Micron's enterprise SSD shipments have tripled, indicating strong demand in the data center segment, which is expected to benefit from AI workloads [9]. Cost Management and Technology - Micron is executing well on its technology roadmap, with expectations for front-end cost reductions in DRAM and NAND in FY2024 [9]. - The company has made significant progress in transitioning to advanced production nodes, with over 80% of DRAM production on 1-alpha and 1-beta nodes [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a material increase in capital expenditures in FY2025, primarily for construction, which may raise investor concerns regarding supply-side discipline [9][20]. - Adjustments to revenue estimates for FY2024/25/26 reflect improved pricing outlooks in NAND, with non-GAAP EPS estimates revised upward [18][19].

| --- | --- | |-------|----------------------| | PWT | 佩恩表 | | q/q | 季度环比 | | Q1 | 第一季度 | | Q2 | 第二季度 | | Q3 | 第三季度 | | Q4 | 第四季度 | | RCB | 农村商业银行 | | R&D | 研究与开发 | | RHS | 右轴 | | RMB | 人民币 | | ROA | 资产回报率 | | ROE | 股本回报率 | | RRR | 存款准备金率 | | RURS | 城乡居民基本养老保险 | | sa | 季节调整 | | SAFE | 中国国家外汇管理局 | | SOE | 国有企业 | | TFP | 全要素生产率 | | UN | 联合国 | | US | 美国 | | USD | 美元 | | VAT | 增值税 | | WBG | 世界银行集团 | | WDI | 世界发展指标 | | y/y | 与上年同期相比 | | ytd | 年初迄今 | | 4mma | 4 个月度移动平均 | 概要 来源：世界银行。 注：f = 预测（基线情景）。* 世界银行工作人员估算。 更 ...

Core Viewpoint - CK Hutchison Holdings Limited (CKHUY) is a diversified conglomerate with operations in 50 countries, focusing on four main business segments: ports and related services, retail, infrastructure, and telecommunications [3][4][5][6][7]. Business Segments - **Ports and Related Services**: CKHUY operates 53 ports across 24 countries, providing services such as distribution centers and ship repair, making it the world's leading port network [4]. - **Retail**: The AS Watson Group, a subsidiary of CKHUY, is the largest health and beauty retailer globally, with operations in 28 markets, including health and beauty products, supermarkets, and luxury perfumeries [5]. - **Infrastructure**: CKHUY invests in energy, water transportation, waste management, and other infrastructure-related businesses, primarily in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the UK, Europe, Australasia, and North America [6]. - **Telecommunications**: The company serves over 175 million customers across Europe and Asia, providing mobile and Wi-Fi services [7]. Financial Performance - **EBITDA**: In 2023, CKHUY's EBITDA remained steady, with a slight underlying change of -1%, primarily due to declines in the ports and related services segment [13][14]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Underlying free cash flow increased by 12% year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [16][17]. - **Debt Reduction**: CKHUY reduced gross debt by HKD 41.7 billion and net debt by HKD 35 billion, strengthening its balance sheet [21]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 6.0, with a dividend yield of 6.8% and a payout ratio of 40% [23]. Market Position and Outlook - **Credit Rating**: CKHUY's credit rating is on the verge of an upgrade, supported by its diversified business model and stable cash flows [23]. - **Stock Valuation**: The stock is considered undervalued, with estimates suggesting it could triple to reach fair value, driven by strong fundamentals and potential management actions [23].