中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：前瞻｜上市银行2024三季报展望与预测：息差企稳，利润增速边际回升-20241017

Group 1: Banking Sector Overview - The report forecasts a revenue decline of 2.4% for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to a decline of 2.2% in the first half of 2024, while profit is expected to increase by 0.6%, up from 0.4% in the first half of 2024 [2] - Interest margins are expected to stabilize, with a projected increase of 0.9 basis points in Q3 due to the prohibition of manual interest supplementation [2] - Credit growth is anticipated to continue its downward trend, with a forecasted credit growth rate of 8.2% for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting weak demand in the real economy [2] Group 2: Asset Quality and Financial Metrics - The asset quality is expected to remain stable, with improvements anticipated in retail lending trends, and there is still room for provisioning releases [2] - The overall asset scale growth for listed banks is projected at 7.3% for the first three quarters of 2024, aligning with social financing growth [2] - The net interest income growth is expected to decline by 2.9%, showing a slight improvement compared to the 3.4% decline in the first half of 2024, while non-interest income growth is also expected to decrease [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets within the banking sector, as policy support is expected to enhance the fundamental outlook and asset quality [2] - It highlights the potential of high-dividend yielding large banks and emphasizes the certainty of fundamentals in quality urban and rural commercial banks, particularly those with attractive valuations [2] - The report indicates that the economic recovery and debt restructuring will benefit the banking sector, making it a favorable investment opportunity [2]