石油化工行业周报：中东地缘冲突延续，油价有望高位运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that international oil prices are expected to remain high due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [1][16]. - It notes that while U.S. crude oil production is projected to grow over the next two years, international oil prices are likely to stabilize at relatively high levels, which is favorable for upstream companies [16]. - The report identifies four main investment themes within the petrochemical sector, focusing on state-owned energy companies, oil service companies, polyester industry improvements, and refining companies expanding new capacities [2][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Oil and Petrochemical sector declined approximately 4.02% during the week of October 7-11, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.46 percentage points [7]. - Key stocks that performed well included Guanghui Energy and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, while stocks like Hongtian Co. and Donghua Energy saw significant declines [9][10]. Core Views Oil & Gas Sector - Brent crude oil futures settled at approximately $79.04 per barrel, with a weekly increase of about 1.27%, and WTI crude oil futures at $75.56 per barrel, up 1.6% [11]. - Natural gas prices saw a decline, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at about $2.63 per million British thermal units, down 7% [13]. Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America increased by one week-on-week, although it decreased by 36 year-on-year [17]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Oilfield Services and CNOOC Engineering due to the growth in OPEC countries' drilling platforms [17]. Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices slightly increased, with gasoline prices in Shandong rising to approximately 7,474 RMB per ton [19]. - The report indicates a significant recovery potential for refining companies, recommending attention to Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19]. Polyester Sector - The report notes a reduction in inventory days for polyester products, indicating a potential recovery in performance for companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun [23]. - The POY price spread has expanded, suggesting improved profitability for polyester manufacturers [23]. C3 Sector - The price of acrylic acid in Shandong rose to approximately 6,575 RMB per ton, with a weekly increase of about 1.9% [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation for their efforts in oil and gas production and green transformation [31]. - It also suggests monitoring oil service companies and refining firms that are actively planning new capacities and projects [31].