银行业9月金融数据点评：居民延续去杠杆，股市回暖+财政支出推升M2

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "In line with the market" [2][21] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a continued trend of deleveraging among residents, with weak loan demand and a reliance on bill financing from enterprises. The overall credit structure remains unfavorable, and the M1 index has reached a historical low while M2 has shown signs of recovery due to stock market activity and increased fiscal spending [6][21] - The report suggests that with the acceleration of local government debt issuance and the implementation of fiscal policies, there is potential for improvement in social financing and credit conditions, which may alleviate the quality of bank risk assets [21] Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - As of September 2024, the total RMB loan balance reached 253.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.11%. In September, RMB loans increased by 1,590 billion yuan, which is 720 billion yuan less than the previous year [5][7] - The new loans to residents in September amounted to 500 billion yuan, a decrease of 358.5 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand [11][12] Credit Structure - The report indicates that the credit structure is weak, with a continued trend of deleveraging among residents. Short-term loans decreased for eight consecutive months, reflecting weak consumption and poor real estate sales [6][11] - For enterprises, new loans totaled 14,900 billion yuan in September, down 1,934 billion yuan year-on-year, with bill financing being the main support for enterprise loans [12][21] M1 and M2 Trends - M1 has seen a further decline, with a year-on-year drop of 7.4%, marking a new low. Conversely, M2 has rebounded with a growth rate of 6.8%, the highest in four months, driven by stock market recovery and increased fiscal spending [16][21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned banks with stable earnings and high dividends, such as China Construction Bank, while keeping an eye on core assets like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank if economic expectations improve [21]