2024年9月物价数据点评：价格持续低位运行

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - In September 2024, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.4% and rural areas by 0.6%[10] - Food prices rose by 3.3%, while non-food prices decreased by 0.2%[10] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%[10] Group 2: Price Trends - The CPI's year-on-year change was primarily influenced by a tail effect of approximately -0.5 percentage points, compared to -0.3 percentage points the previous month[10] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating weak demand[11] - The PPI's decline was significantly impacted by eight major industries, which collectively contributed to a 2.04 percentage point drop in the PPI year-on-year, accounting for over 70% of the total decline[19] Group 3: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize and recover, providing a solid foundation for the capital market's performance[20] - The implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures are anticipated to support economic stability and growth, helping to achieve annual development goals[21] - The likelihood of sustained price stability creates room for increased counter-cyclical policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts and fiscal policy enhancements[21] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China's monetary policy[22]