2024年9月外贸数据点评：进出口回落，高顺差延续

Trade Data Summary - In September 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 3.75 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%[8] - Exports amounted to 2.17 trillion RMB, growing by 1.6%, while imports fell to 1.58 trillion RMB, down by 0.5%[8] - The trade surplus for September was 582.62 billion RMB, equivalent to 81.71 billion USD[8][18] Export and Import Analysis - Exports to major countries declined, with significant drops noted in shipments to the EU and Japan[11] - Labor-intensive goods, except toys, saw a decrease in export performance, while mechanical and electrical products also experienced an overall decline[14] - Import growth (in USD terms) slightly decreased, with most major imported goods, except automobiles, showing a rebound in quantity[9] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize and improve, providing a solid foundation for the capital market's recovery[19] - High trade surplus is anticipated to continue, supported by China's strong manufacturing position in the global economy[20] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China's monetary policy[21]