【宏观国债三季报】政策预期改变下，资产价格或回暖

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The US economy shows signs of resilience with a significant increase in September non-farm payrolls, adding 254,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 140,000[3] - The unemployment rate in the US decreased slightly to 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The US service sector PMI rose to 54.9% in September, indicating strong economic activity[7] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 20 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, potentially injecting approximately 1.5 trillion yuan into the economy[4] - A series of real estate policies were introduced, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates by an average of 0.98%, expected to save households around 150 billion yuan annually[4] - New financial instruments were created to enhance liquidity in the stock market, including a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase program with a low interest rate of 2.25%[4] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market anticipates a total of 50 basis points in interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, aligning with the dot plot projections[8] - Domestic asset prices are expected to recover due to the reversal in policy expectations and improved economic indicators[5] - The 10-year government bond futures are projected to fluctuate within the range of [104.5, 106.5] as market conditions stabilize[6]