银行专题：国有大型银行资本补充的历史复盘及推演

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The six major banks have a history of three rounds of concentrated equity financing and ongoing targeted placements, with the placement prices not lower than 1x PB [1][2]. - A static calculation indicates that if the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of the six major banks increases by 1 percentage point, a total of 1.05 trillion RMB in capital needs to be supplemented [1][9]. - The pace of capital increase is expected to be phased and tailored for each bank, with Agricultural Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank having more urgent capital needs [1][4]. - If capital is raised at 1x PB, the dilution impact on dividend yield will be within 0.5 percentage points, and considering the improvement in net profit post-capital increase, the overall impact will be manageable, enhancing the banks' long-term profitability and dividend sustainability [1][4]. Summary by Sections Proposed Issuance of Special Government Bonds - The state plans to issue special government bonds to support the core Tier 1 capital of major commercial banks, with a cross-departmental working mechanism established to oversee the process [8][9]. Historical Review of Major Bank Equity Financing - The six major banks have undergone three significant rounds of concentrated equity financing, including the issuance of 2.7 trillion RMB in special government bonds in 1998, which was entirely used to supplement capital [11][12]. - From 2003 to 2008, China Investment Corporation injected over 600 billion RMB into major banks [14][15]. - In 2010, the four major banks completed a total equity placement of nearly 200 billion RMB [16][17]. - Between 2012 and 2023, Bank of Communications, Agricultural Bank, and Postal Savings Bank completed targeted placements totaling over 200 billion RMB, with prices not lower than 1x PB [18][19]. Core Tier 1 Capital Supplementation Scale Calculation - A static calculation shows that a 1 percentage point increase in the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for the six major banks would require a total capital supplement of 1.05 trillion RMB, with specific needs for each bank outlined [1][10]. Pricing Scenarios for Capital Increase - If capital is raised at 1x PB, the dilution impact on the dividend yield is estimated to be between 0.34% and 0.49% [3][4]. - If raised at 0.8x PB, the dilution impact is projected to be between 0.42% and 0.60% [3]. - If raised at the current market price, the dilution impact is estimated to be between 0.46% and 0.70% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets within the banking sector, including Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as high-dividend yield options among large banks such as Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, and others [4].