医疗器械专题之IVD：化学发光相关体外诊断试剂集采演绎

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the IVD industry, particularly focusing on the potential for domestic manufacturers to increase market share through policy-driven changes in procurement practices [3]. Core Insights - The natural growth of chemical luminescence in IVD is slow, with a strong Matthew effect favoring established import manufacturers. Domestic products face challenges in achieving import substitution unless disruptive technologies emerge [3][24]. - Provincial alliance procurement and future national procurement policies are expected to accelerate the trend of import substitution. The report predicts that with the implementation of these policies, domestic market share in chemical luminescence could reach approximately 48% by 2030 [3][24]. - IVD companies with comprehensive product lines and innovation capabilities are likely to withstand the impacts of procurement policies and maintain growth rates above the industry average [3][24]. - Recommended stocks include YHLO Biotech, New Industries, Antu Bio, and Mindray Medical [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Provincial Alliance Procurement Review and Forecast - The first provincial alliance procurement led by Anhui involved 25 provinces, with a significant initial procurement demand of 710 million tests and an intended procurement volume of 640 million tests [7]. - The procurement covers various projects, including HCG, sex hormones, infectious diseases, and glucose metabolism tests [7][8]. 2. 2024 Anhui Tumor Markers and Thyroid Function Procurement Review - The 2024 procurement will expand to include tumor markers and thyroid function tests, with a wide range of projects covered [28]. - The report anticipates that the market scale for these segments will be significantly impacted by the procurement policies [28]. 3. National Procurement Final Forecast - The report forecasts that by 2030, the national market for chemical luminescence could reach approximately 916 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 11.4% from 2023 to 2030 [50]. - The expected market dynamics indicate a shift towards increased domestic market share due to procurement policies [54]. 4. Recommended Stocks - YHLO Biotech is highlighted for its innovative capabilities and strong market presence, with projected net profits showing significant growth from 2024 to 2026 [60]. - The financial metrics for YHLO indicate a recovery and growth trajectory, with expected revenues and net profits increasing substantially over the forecast period [61].