策略研究：中央财政空间充足，增量政策有望对市场形成支撑

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the central government's fiscal space is ample, and incremental policies are expected to support the market [1] - The fiscal policy is set to be proactive, with expectations for new fiscal measures to stimulate economic recovery [1] Fiscal Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has arranged a debt limit of 1.2 trillion yuan to help local governments resolve hidden debts and settle overdue payments to enterprises [1] - Key expenditures in technology, education, public welfare, and services are prioritized, with an acceleration in the issuance of national bonds and special local government bonds [1] - A package of targeted incremental policy measures is anticipated to be introduced soon, focusing on stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and mitigating risks [1] Market Response - The Ministry of Finance has addressed three major market concerns, indicating that adjustments to the deficit and other policies are expected [1] - The probability of adjusting the deficit rate within the year is low, but there is significant room for future adjustments [1] - The government plans to support local debt resolution with a substantial increase in debt limits and special bonds to stabilize the real estate market [1] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the proactive fiscal measures are likely to boost market confidence in the short term, while the medium to long-term effects will depend on the implementation of these policies and their impact on the macroeconomic fundamentals [1]