SF Holding(SZ:002352) CSC SECURITIES (HK) LTD·2024-10-17 06:08Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [7][10]. Core Views - The company announced a special dividend plan totaling approximately RMB 48 billion, alongside a mid-year dividend of about RMB 19.2 billion, enhancing market confidence [7]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in the first half of 2024, driven by new business segments such as supply chain and international logistics [8]. - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at RMB 95 billion, RMB 107 billion, and RMB 126 billion, respectively [8]. Summary by Sections Dividend Plans - The company plans to distribute a total of RMB 67.2 billion in dividends, with a yield of approximately 3.4% based on the closing price on October 10 [7]. - The special dividend is set at RMB 10 per 10 shares, while the mid-year dividend is RMB 4 per 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to increasing shareholder returns [7]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 1,344.1 billion in the first half of 2024, with significant contributions from new business lines: supply chain and international (RMB 312 billion), express delivery (RMB 175.5 billion), and same-city delivery (RMB 39.6 billion) [8]. - The gross profit margin has improved from 12.4% in 2021 to 12.8% in 2023, with net profit margin increasing from 2.1% to 3.2% over the same period [8]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 95 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, and earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach RMB 2.0 [9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 32.80 in 2024 to 15.88 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [9].