9月煤炭进口数据点评：煤炭进口量新高，后期增幅有望收窄

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [4][12]. Core Insights - In September 2024, China's coal imports reached a historical high of 47.588 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.93% and a month-on-month increase of 3.80% [2][3]. - The increase in coal imports is attributed to a combination of stable domestic coal prices and declining international coal prices, which expanded the cost advantage of imported coal [2][3]. - International coal prices have shown signs of recovery due to rising global demand and geopolitical conflicts, which may lead to a narrowing of the growth rate of coal imports in the coming months [3]. Summary by Sections Import Data - In the first nine months of 2024, coal imports totaled 38.9128 million tons, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year growth [2]. - The average prices for various international coal types in September were as follows: Australian NEWC at $139.8/ton, European ARA at $116.5/ton, South African RB at $108.5/ton, and Indonesian Q4200 at 631.8 RMB/ton, all showing a decline compared to August [2]. Price Trends - Domestic coal prices, specifically the CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500, increased by 1.2% in September to 857.8 RMB/ton, contrasting with the downward trend in international prices [2]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the exceptional growth in coal imports is unlikely to continue, given the negative growth in domestic raw coal production and limited overall supply increases [4][12]. - The focus is recommended on thermal coal companies benefiting from increased winter storage demand and coking coal companies that may see improved demand due to macroeconomic policy support [4][12].