摩根士丹利周期论剑-政策，金融-房地产-铀行业更新

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates potential growth in the insurance sector and suggests a defensive strategy for stock selection in the real estate sector. Core Insights - Recent government policies aim to stabilize the economy rather than aggressively stimulate growth, with measures including interest rate cuts and fiscal support [1][2][5] - The average loan interest rate is currently at 3.6%, and further reductions are expected to have limited marginal impact on economic growth [2][4] - The planned bond issuance for this year is 9.5 trillion yuan, significantly higher than 4 trillion yuan in 2019, but large-scale fiscal stimulus remains challenging due to local government debt levels [1][5] - The real estate sector is under pressure due to the ongoing de-leveraging process, and government measures are focused on stabilizing the market [4][10] - Future economic growth in China is anticipated to be of high quality but at a moderate pace, with a consensus GDP growth rate around 3% [9] Summary by Sections Policy and Economic Outlook - The government has implemented various measures to support the economy, including interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, but these are not aggressive expansions [1][2] - The average loan interest rate has been reduced by 200 basis points since 2021, currently at 3.6%, which limits the effectiveness of further cuts [2][5] Real Estate Sector - The real estate industry is experiencing significant pressure due to the de-leveraging process, with government measures aimed at stabilizing the market [4][10] - The planned bond issuance for local governments is 9.5 trillion yuan, which is a substantial increase from previous years, but large-scale fiscal stimulus is constrained by high local government debt [1][5] Investment Opportunities - The insurance sector is expected to have growth potential and reasonable valuations in the context of moderate economic growth [9] - Recommended stocks include state-owned enterprises like China Resources Land and China Overseas Land, which are well-positioned to benefit from both real estate and retail recoveries [13][17]