各位领导早上好,我是国际网络设施的于嘉义今天早上的话我们来给各个领导去探讨一下对于黄金短中期的一个逻辑以及未来价格的一个展望那近期的话其实市场能够明显看到像这种强美元格局下其实很多的这种金融储备商品的话其实它自身也是非常强那你其实站在利益上 其实这种强美元一般往往会带来一个弱商品的这么一个表现但是这一轮的话是存在明显差异的然后考虑到周五当中的话整体非能数据是严重超预期的一个情况下我们发现这种商品的一个强势在美元还在逞强的过程当中的话是非常超时长预期所以我们今天特别邀请了 给我们去探讨当前的一个黄金的交易逻辑以及未来的一个判断郁总那要不我们先直观一些把整个当前的一个黄金观点以及对未来价格的一个判断然后我们先给各位领导梳理一下后面的话我们再针对当前的细节以及未来的一些展望我们再进行探讨辛苦郁总好嘞谢谢郁总今天也跟大家做一个简单的一个交流 其实就是最近应该说正好是从美联储的一期会议之后12月19号开了会之后金价最近是一个从2600以下2580现在又回升到了2680多这么个位置涨了100多美元 短期来看这一波的行情我理解是一个主要交易的一个逻辑在于把美联储对于未来降息的暂停降息包括偏鹰的这么一个表态基本上在那一波下跌 ...

各位小伙伴大家下午好欢迎收看传论解盘我是光大证券投资顾问李全大家叫我李师兄每个交易日下午四点钟我们都会在直播间陪大家俯瞰市场热点寻找靠谱的小机会 今天是2024年最后一个交易日尽管整体的指数表现是相对比较弱的但是我们可以发现当前回顾全年来看的话市场还是有诸多的这样一个亮点整体市场的大势也是在九月份完成了根本性的这样一个反转 所以全年来看我们仍然发现A股是呈现出来了震荡上行的这样一个状态如果大家再细分去看到底哪些板块在2024年表现相对比较好大家就可以发现像金融股的表现包括像科技股的表现都是非常强的这些都构成了我们2024年比较重要的主线的机遇 包括像金融其实大家可以发现随着大家对于高股息特别是政策层面在促进上市央企做好市值管理相关工作的这样一个推动之下相关的这样一个红利属性的红利资产表现还是非常强势的像银行股如果我们看31个一级行业银行股整体的这样一个表现是非常领先的 可能在大家印象里啊银行股啊它是一个环境相对比较小的这样一个板块但是从今年来看的话整体的银行股啊就展现出来了非常强的这样一个进攻的属性 全体来看银行股的上涨幅度呢是超过34%的非营金融呢涨幅也是超过30%所以金融股呢无疑是2024年非常重要的这样 ...

或者他最重要的一个方面就是稳定宏观感染率一方面是政策在加力的同时维持债务的有序增长另一方面就是做大分母把GDP和物价做上来就明显地增速做上来这样才能稳定宏观感染率那从这个角度来看呢这一次的中国金融管理报告里面也明确提到了就我们为什么刚才没有回升一个是政策在加力另外一个是物价不行 本期观点还是延续之前就继续看多啊至少到春节之前我们建议不要轻易下车十年国债利率的区间呢我们还是拍1.5到1.7流动性呢我们是看后续文件挺宽松的啊月底呢这个流动性有编辑转锋转编辑转景的这个迹象呃去同比去年的话实际上不是特别友好啊不是特别友好那跨年之后呢我们 对吧那央行要推动物价颗粒回升所以后面货币政策还是维持分封这是一个大的纬度啊就是出于还是我们之前的那个观点出于稳增长防风险对吧划债等等一些多元目标下稳定的利率环境就是一个最大公约数啊所以在下还是看多只是在这个报告里面行文里面央行对于利率风险等等还是有明确关注的啊包括这个银行的账户利率风险对吧账户账户与账户之间的腾模他也明确了这个东西就是监管套利 所以大观点上来讲或者中期来看就是看多但是波动会加大后面我们做一个展开首先从我们周度观点出发上周呢这个流动性在前两个交易日流动性还是偏松的然后三 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Company/Industry Involved - The report focuses on the investment strategy for 2025, covering various asset classes including A-shares, bonds, gold, US stocks, and Hong Kong stocks. Core Points and Arguments Macro-Level Insights - The report emphasizes a comprehensive asset allocation strategy that combines top-down and bottom-up approaches, utilizing macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, inflation, liquidity, monetary policy, and central bank gold purchases to assess investment value in stocks, bonds, and gold [2][14][40]. - A recommendation is made to prioritize long-term bonds in the bond allocation, while stock investments should focus on a mix of dividend, broad-based, and growth strategies, with dividends and broad-based stocks serving as the core holdings [2][40]. Mid-Level Insights - The report highlights the importance of detailed research due to the increasing efficiency of the market, making it more challenging to obtain Alpha. It suggests focusing on the long-term impact of fundamentals on stock prices, especially as liquidity improves [3][47]. - The "expected double-click" industry rotation strategy has yielded an annualized return of 11.00% from January 2010 to October 2024, with a cumulative absolute return of 10.05% and cumulative excess return of 21.18% since early 2022 [3][40]. Product Recommendations - Active Equity: A selection framework is constructed based on a scoring system, categorizing funds into deep value, value, value growth, balanced growth, and growth styles, with a focus on high-scoring funds [3][40]. - Quantitative Products: The CSI 300 index is favored, with the Hai Fu Tong CSI 300 Index Enhanced A product ranking highly among similar products [3][40]. - Fixed Income: Fixed income products are categorized into conservative, stable, balanced, aggressive, and progressive types, with a focus on high-scoring funds in each category [3][40]. Performance Metrics - The report presents performance metrics for different portfolio types, indicating that the macro state model outperforms traditional risk parity models in terms of annualized excess returns and drawdown performance [31][33][40]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The report discusses the challenges faced in extracting Alpha in 2024, particularly for traditional high-frequency strategies based on price and volume, and emphasizes the need for innovative factor extraction methods using large models [47][48]. - It introduces a unified framework for fundamental factor extraction that optimizes various modules, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of factor generation and validation [51][52]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the investment strategy and market outlook for 2025.

各位投资者大家晚上好那么我是开源证券地产建筑首席齐东那么今天我们这个在这个一个周三的晚上举行这个电话会议我们的主题是这个对金融地产的三地报的业绩啊进行一个回顾那么对金融地产三地度的一个机构池仓进行一个分析那么同时也汇报一下我们后续啊整个的金融地产行业的一个观点啊 那么今天我们这个来的这个嘉宾呢也是我们这个这个好这个大家比较熟悉的啊这个老朋友一位是我们这个呃开源证券非营金融首席分析师那么高超高总那么一位是我们开源证券银行首席分析师刘春祥刘总那么最后以及我啊那么就是这个这个这个地产首席齐东那么大家也知道的话那么近期的话确实啊这个从九月之后啊 那么我们的政策的组合全评出啊那么应该来说的话在九月底到现在这一个多月啊那么走出了一轮这个波澜壮阔的行情啊那么特别是这个券商板块啊一马当先那么首先我们先把时间给我们这个高超高总那么请他来给我们这个分析一下非营和保险等相关的非营金融板块啊那么同时请高总给我们讲解一下他的一个近期的观点 好的谢谢东哥各位同事们大家晚上好我是看远飞鹰高超跟大家主要汇报两方面的内容一个呢就是这个券商跟保险三级报的一个打击情况第二呢就是最后面的一个这个观点一个展望那么从整个三级报来看券商这边的其实券商跟保 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 Morgan Stanley research October 21, 2024 04:01 AM GMT US Equity Strategy │ North America Weekly Warm-up: Stick with Cyclicals as Financials Stand Out From the Pack We continue to have conviction in our cyclical shift & Financials, upgrade. Earnings season has been strong for Financials & the stocks have responded well to EPS beats (best performing sector over the last 2 weeks). As focus turns to the election, we dissect market implications of various scenarios. • We Continue To ...

M Update US Banks & Consumer Finance | North America October 17, 2024 04:01 AM GMT 3Q24 Earnings Chart Pack: Day 3 Key Takeaways Large Cap Bank Earnings are 75% done. This is the strongest start to earnings I have ever experienced in my 22 years of covering Large Cap Banks. Why? Every single Large Cap Bank has delivered a high quality EPS beat of 6-36% driven by capital markets fees with some also delivering NII and expense beats. We see more upside from here given we are still in the early innings of the c ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The primary focus is on the intersection of AI and the energy sector, particularly nuclear energy, as major tech companies invest in this area to meet the electricity demands of AI-driven data centers [1][2]. Core Insights - **Investment in Nuclear Energy**: Amazon is acquiring a stake in X-Energy for small modular reactors (SMRs), while Google is investing in Kairos Power. Microsoft has a 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy for a nuclear reactor [2]. - **Surge in Electricity Demand**: A combination of AI data center expansions, vehicle electrification, and onshoring manufacturing is driving a significant increase in US electricity demand, which had been stagnant for two decades [2]. - **Record Investment in Energy Transition**: Global investment in energy transition reached a record $1.8 trillion last year, fueled by tech giants funding renewable and clean energy initiatives [2]. AI and Nobel Prizes - The recent Nobel prizes awarded to AI researchers signify mainstream acceptance of AI beyond just generative models like ChatGPT. Notable winners include Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis for their contributions to AI and machine learning [4][5]. - The recognition of AI's broader applications, such as in protein structure prediction, highlights the importance of foundational research in advancing technology [5]. Financial Market Implications - The IMF warns that the rise of AI in financial markets could introduce new risks, including increased market volatility and challenges in monitoring non-bank financial institutions [10][11]. - Recommendations for policymakers include enhancing regulatory frameworks to address AI-related risks and ensuring robust monitoring of large traders and key AI service providers [12]. Competitive Landscape in AI Hardware - AMD has launched the Instinct MI325X AI chip, aiming to capture a share of the AI accelerator market currently dominated by Nvidia, which holds over 90% market share [16]. - AMD's market estimate for AI hardware has increased from $400 billion in 2027 to $500 billion in 2028, up from $45 billion in 2023 [16]. - TSMC reported a 36% year-on-year increase in net revenue, indicating strong demand for advanced chips [17]. Strategic Moves by Companies - Nvidia's CEO emphasized the company's strategy of building a comprehensive infrastructure for AI, integrating chips, software, and networking equipment [18]. - AMD's acquisition of server maker ZT Systems for $4.9 billion underscores its commitment to AI systems as a strategic priority [18]. - Smaller companies are also entering the market with specialized models focusing on the inference stage of AI, which is critical for running trained models [19]. Geopolitical Considerations - The Biden administration is considering tightening restrictions on advanced AI chip access for countries like China, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions [20]. Conclusion - The convergence of AI and energy sectors presents significant investment opportunities, while the evolving landscape of AI technology and regulation poses both challenges and risks for financial markets and competitive dynamics in the semiconductor industry [1][10][20].

Q3 经济金融数据、出口、地产政策、美元走强解读 20241020 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 本文汇报 1、政策框架清晰后关注金融信号 2、消费建材：资金高度敏感，龙头估值与格局优势明显 3、水泥：提价与政策共振，龙头充分受益 4、建筑玻璃：库存阶段性转移后，提价动力趋缓 5、光伏玻璃：高库位下，价格底部反复 6、玻纤：差异化产品出货是下半年看点 7、碳纤维：风电需求环比有所修复，整体价格盈利压力偏高 《建材龙头股 2024 年三季报预测—实时更新（国君建材鲍雁辛团队）》请向对口销售 或研究员索取 1、政策框架清晰后关注金融信号 政策框架清晰后关注重回基本面，金融数据或最重要。9 月以来的政策组合拳伴随着 住建部交流会议的完成，框架已经逐步清晰，后续关注的政策信号主要在于财政工具 金额的落地以及地方的进一步调整推进，整体来说市场关注的重心将开始关注基本面 兑现的信号。从各类观测角度的筛选来看，我们认为金融数据（信贷）或是中短期最 需要关注的领先指标，因为此次政策框架对建材实物未来支撑的核心逻辑，就在于增 量资金对于产业链的注入： 1. 季度维度见效最快的在于地产项目贷款增量：住建部会议中指引地产白名单贷款审 批额预期年底接近翻倍（2.2 万亿- ...