海外市场专题：海外当下都有哪些潜在风险及其影响路径

Risk Assessment - The highest risk is the potential for a U.S. economic recession and political uncertainty from the European and American elections, which could have a comprehensive and lasting impact on global capital markets[1] - Systemic risks in the U.S. financial system and escalating geopolitical conflicts are considered significant but may cause more localized market disturbances[1] - The risks associated with the bubble in U.S. tech stocks and rising uncertainties in China's exports are deemed relatively controllable, likely leading to localized market impacts[1] Probability of Occurrence - Political uncertainty from the U.S. elections is currently viewed as the most probable risk, alongside a significant likelihood of weakened exports from China due to various global economic factors[1] - The risks of geopolitical conflicts and the bursting of the tech stock bubble are considered manageable, while the probability of systemic financial risks in the U.S. is low in the near term[1] Asset Performance Recommendations - In the event of a U.S. recession, the recommended asset performance order is: Bonds > Cash > Stocks > Commodities, with U.S. Treasuries expected to perform well[2] - The outcome of the U.S. elections is likely to influence asset allocation, with Democratic victories generally favoring long-term U.S. Treasuries and certain stock sectors[2] - Systemic risks in the U.S. financial system may lead to short-term disturbances in investor sentiment, with defensive sectors expected to perform better[2] Export Uncertainty - China's export uncertainties are expected to rise, particularly in industries with high foreign dependency, such as electronics and educational products[2] - The global manufacturing PMI has shown signs of decline, indicating potential challenges for future export stability[2]