ASML3Q启示：新签订单环比大幅下滑，2025年行业持续温和复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry [1][2]. Core Insights - ASML's Q3 2024 performance exceeded previous guidance, but new orders saw a significant decline, indicating a cautious outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector [1][2]. - The industry is expected to experience a gradual recovery in 2025, driven by strong demand in artificial intelligence, while other segments may take longer to rebound [2][3]. - ASML has revised its revenue guidance for 2025 down to €30-35 billion from a previous estimate of €30-40 billion, reflecting a more conservative outlook [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - ASML reported Q3 2024 revenue of €7.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.6%, slightly above the previous guidance of €6.7-7.3 billion [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 50.8%, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company anticipates Q4 2024 revenue to be between €8.8-9.2 billion, consistent with market expectations [1]. Order Trends - New orders in Q3 amounted to €2.6 billion, a 54% decline from the previous quarter, falling short of Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][2]. - The breakdown of new orders showed 54% from memory clients and 46% from logic clients, with a notable shift towards the NXE:3800E model [1][3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that while AI-related demand remains robust, other market segments are recovering slowly, with a forecasted industry sales peak of $124 billion in 2025 [2]. - ASML expects its revenue from China to normalize, projecting a 20% contribution to total revenue by 2025 [2].