HTSC·2024-10-17 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 48 and HKD 20 [7][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, projected to grow by 165% to 185% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 1,011.35 to 1,087.67 billion [2]. - The rise in stock market performance at the end of September is anticipated to boost the company's investment income, contributing to substantial profit growth [3][4]. - The company's insurance business is operating steadily, with a forecasted 18% growth in new business value (NBV) for the full year of 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a 5.1% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. - The estimated total investment income for 2024 is projected to be RMB 298.74 billion, reflecting a 162.93% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 116.92 billion, representing a 153.17% increase year-on-year [6]. Investment Strategy - The company has optimized its equity investment structure, with a significant portion of its stock and fund holdings classified under FVTPL, which makes its profits sensitive to market fluctuations [4]. - The investment performance is expected to contribute significantly to the company's pre-tax profit, accounting for 65% in the first half of 2024 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 4.14, with a dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 1.09 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 10.38 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [6][15].