国君轻工|美国经济刺激政策下消费表现复盘

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on leading brands and manufacturers in the industry if consumer spending improves as expected [1] Core Insights - The consumption stimulus model in the U.S. involved three rounds of cash payments totaling $867 billion, approximately 4% of U.S. GDP, which significantly influenced consumer behavior and spending patterns [1] - The textile and apparel sector saw a notable recovery in sales, particularly after the third round of cash payments, with a significant increase in clothing sales in March 2021, marking the first positive growth since the pandemic [1] - The light manufacturing sector benefits from preemptive inventory replenishment and global supply chain advantages, leading to greater earnings elasticity compared to downstream channels and terminal sales [2] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The U.S. implemented three rounds of direct cash transfers to households, with the first round providing $1,200 per adult and $500 per child, the second round increasing this to $600, and the third round to $1,400 [1] - Consumer spending on durable goods outpaced non-durable goods and services, with a peak in growth observed during the third round of cash payments [1] Textile and Apparel - The demand for clothing was initially weak due to remote work, but sales began to recover significantly in 2021, particularly after the third round of stimulus payments [1] - Adidas reported a return to profitability in Q3 2020, benefiting from economic stimulus and expectations of new cash payments, with its valuation reaching a peak in Q4 2020 [1] Light Manufacturing - Midstream manufacturing experienced greater earnings elasticity due to global supply chain advantages and increased market share, with performance improving significantly from Q2 2020 onwards [2] - The recovery in terminal sales was gradual, with midstream manufacturing benefiting from early replenishment of downstream inventory [2]