国君研究|2024三季报前瞻(二)

Group 1: Brokerage Firms - The net profit of listed brokerages is expected to decline by 4.16% year-on-year to CNY 105.396 billion in the first three quarters of 2024[1] - Adjusted operating revenue is projected to decrease by 5.91% year-on-year to CNY 300.229 billion[1] - In Q3 2024, adjusted revenue is expected to increase by 22.06% year-on-year to CNY 109.343 billion, with net profit rising by 47.71% year-on-year to CNY 41.435 billion[1] - Investment business revenue is anticipated to grow by 21.04% year-on-year to CNY 134.264 billion, while brokerage and investment banking revenues are expected to decline by 16.24% and 38.77%, respectively[1] Group 2: Insurance Companies - The net profit growth rates for major insurance companies in Q3 2024 are forecasted as follows: Xinhua Insurance (102.0%), China Life (95.7%), and China Pacific Insurance (67.4%)[2] - New Business Value (NBV) is expected to grow rapidly, with Xinhua Insurance leading at 66.2% growth rate[2] - The combined ratio (COR) for property insurance is expected to improve slightly, with estimates around 97.3% for PICC and 98.0% for Ping An[3] Group 3: Convertible Bonds - Industries expected to see high growth in Q3 2024 include electronics, agriculture, and textiles, driven by semiconductor recovery and AI integration[4] - Companies in the electronics sector, such as Weir and Luxshare, are benefiting from increased demand for consumer electronics and automotive intelligence[4] - The average net profit growth rate for industries like agriculture, transportation, and pharmaceuticals is projected to be higher in Q3 2024 compared to H1 2024[4]