行业景气度观察系列10月第1期:地产销售恢复放缓,内需资源品价格反弹
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-17 08:28

Group 1: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales have slowed down, with a 14.4% year-on-year decrease in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities[2] - First-tier cities showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.0% in commercial housing transaction area, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 37.6% and increases of 20.7% respectively[9] - The transaction area for second-hand housing in 10 key cities decreased by 20.6% year-on-year[9] Group 2: Consumer Market - Retail sales of passenger cars in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year and 10.6% month-on-month, slightly exceeding expectations[2] - The average price of live pigs rose by 2.4% week-on-week, driven by increased breeding enthusiasm[2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Resource Prices - Prices for construction materials such as rebar and glass have rebounded, with week-on-week changes of +0.5% and +8.3% respectively[5] - The manufacturing sector's operating rate has marginally improved, with new job postings increasing by 48.2% year-on-year[21] Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Post-holiday travel activity has decreased, with subway passenger volume showing a 2.9% month-on-month increase but a 3.9% year-on-year decrease[6] - The logistics and freight index increased by 16.0% week-on-week, indicating improved logistics conditions[6] Group 5: Risks and Economic Outlook - Ongoing high interest rates abroad and global geopolitical uncertainties pose risks to economic stability[2]