行业配置主线探讨：弹性交易后重回价值

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that from mid-September to early October, macroeconomic policies shifted significantly, driving the market to experience the first wave of recovery after the bear market [9][10] - The initial wave of recovery primarily involved the rapid valuation repair of oversold sectors such as consumer goods and traditional growth industries, including beauty care, computers, electronics, and securities [9][10] - Historical patterns suggest that the leading sectors in the first wave of recovery are typically those that have been oversold, and once their valuations are repaired, they may face pressure on performance and valuation matching [9][12] Group 2: Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong long-term logic and elevated ROE levels, such as upstream cyclical industries, overseas expansion, and high cash flow sectors like home appliances and the internet [9][10] - For the next three months, the suggested allocation order is: upstream cyclical (good capacity structure + sufficient demand concerns) > overseas expansion (strong long-term logic) > media and internet & consumer electronics (value stocks among growth stocks) > financial real estate (most benefited by policies) > new energy (oversold) > consumption (oversold) [9][10] - The report highlights that the financial real estate sector is expected to benefit significantly from policy changes, with real estate valuations still at historical lows, indicating potential for substantial market movements within a year [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Historical Context - The report discusses that during the initial phase of a bull market, the market often experiences a rapid rise, but the subsequent phase tends to be characterized by consolidation and volatility, where new industrial logic begins to form [9][12] - Historical data shows that sectors with lower elasticity during the first wave of recovery may perform better during market corrections, while sectors with new industrial logic and strong performance begin to show strength [9][14] - The report emphasizes that the strongest sectors in the later stages of a bull market are typically those that can break through historical valuation ceilings, supported by new industrial logic and increased capital inflows [9][12][14]