全球半导体观察：ASML明年收入指引低于预期，关注中国和AI投资趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - ASML's Q3 orders fell to €2.63 billion, a decline of over 50% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a downward revision of its 2025 revenue guidance to €30-35 billion, down from the previous €30-40 billion [1][3]. - The report highlights that the growth from AI may not be sufficient to offset the decline in revenue from China and mature processes [1]. - The anticipated revenue from ASML in mainland China for 2025 is projected to decrease by approximately 59% year-on-year, with the revenue share expected to drop to around 20% [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: ASML Performance - ASML reported Q3 revenue of €7.467 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.6%, slightly exceeding previous guidance [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 50.8%, aligning with prior expectations [3]. Section 2: Market Trends - Global demand for consumer products such as smartphones and PCs is weak, impacting ASML's order book [2]. - The report notes that while there is a slowdown in investment from Intel, there has not yet been a noticeable decline in AI-related investments [2]. Section 3: Future Projections - The report anticipates that mainland China will enter a period of capital expenditure decline while revenue steadily increases by 2025 [1]. - It is estimated that overseas equipment manufacturers will see a revenue decline of 27% in the second half of 2024 and 11% in 2025 in mainland China [1].