弹性交易后重回价值

Market Overview - The macroeconomic policy shift in mid-September to early October has significantly boosted market expectations, leading to the first wave of recovery after the bear market[9] - The first wave of recovery primarily involved rapid valuation recovery in oversold sectors such as consumer goods and traditional growth industries, including beauty care, electronics, and securities[9] Investment Strategy - Future investment recommendations for the next three months prioritize upstream cycles (good capacity structure + fully released demand concerns) over overseas expansion (strong long-term logic) and media & consumer electronics (value stocks among growth stocks)[9] - The real estate sector is expected to benefit significantly from policy changes, with a large potential for valuation recovery due to historically low valuations[4] Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that the leading sectors during the first wave of recovery after a bear market often reflect the previous bull market's characteristics, with a tendency for oversold sectors to lead[12] - The sectors that typically perform well during the initial recovery phase include those with low elasticity but strong long-term fundamentals, such as food and beverage, transportation, and basic chemicals[14] Economic Indicators - The PMI for September recorded a rise to 49.8%, indicating improvements in both supply and demand, with the production index at 51.2%[10] - The new export orders index fell to 47.5%, reflecting a decline in external demand, while domestic demand showed signs of recovery[10] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, real estate market declines, and the possibility of growth policies falling short of expectations[4]