房地产：对住建部等五部门召开新闻发布会的点评-信用扩张是主要矛盾

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The recent press conference held by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments focused on risk mitigation in the real estate sector, emphasizing three main areas: ensuring delivery, asset recovery, and urban renewal. The future direction is expected to continue with new models as the primary guide [2]. - The report highlights the importance of credit expansion as a key issue, suggesting that while the plan for 1 million monetized resettlement housing is significant, the effectiveness will depend on whether it provides credit tools for real estate companies to facilitate credit expansion [3]. - The report draws parallels between the current situation and the 2016-2017 housing reform monetization, indicating that the real challenge lies not in the quantity of housing but in the specific credit tools available to companies [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Framework - The policy framework discussed includes: 1. Monetized resettlement of 1 million housing units 2. Increase in the credit scale for white-listed projects to 4 trillion yuan 3. Recovery of commodity housing and land [3]. - The overarching strategy remains focused on optimizing existing stock and controlling new supply [3]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that current policies aim to stabilize the market through lower interest rates, which would enhance the tolerance for asset returns, and that inflation could help improve consumer purchasing power [3]. - Two potential methods for stabilization are identified: lowering interest rates to stabilize asset prices and leveraging inflation to boost purchasing power [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including: - China Merchants Shekou - China New Group - Poly Developments - It also notes the importance of restructuring progress for companies like CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [3]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating expected EPS for 2023 and projections for 2024 and 2025, with all recommended companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [5].