千红制药：2024年三季报点评：Q3业绩超预期，拟收购方圆制药获取潜力品种

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianhong Pharmaceutical [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.47%. The net profit for Q3 alone was 127 million yuan, up 60.84% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations [2] - Qianhong Pharmaceutical plans to acquire all shares of Fangyuan Pharmaceutical for 390 million yuan, aiming to enhance its product portfolio and profitability [2] - The company has increased its R&D expenses significantly in Q3, which impacted its non-recurring net profit. However, the clinical trial results for its innovative drug QHRD107 are expected to be positive [2] - The recovery of 85 million yuan from a trust settlement is expected to further boost the company's profits [2] - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards due to the expected benefits from the acquisition and the trust settlement, with projected net profits of 380 million, 401 million, and 445 million yuan respectively [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.814 billion yuan, with a decline of 21.24% year-on-year, while the net profit for 2023 is expected to be 181.86 million yuan, down 43.77% year-on-year [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.30 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.54 based on the current market price [1][9] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 2.803 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 9.56% [8][9]