9月进出口数据点评：外需边际回落，出口增速放缓

Export Data - In September 2024, China's export value was $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, down 6.3 percentage points from August[1] - The trade surplus in September was $81.71 billion, a decrease of $9.31 billion from the previous month[1] - Exports to the EU showed a significant slowdown, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.32%, down from 13.40%[9] Import Data - In September 2024, China's import value was $222.00 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from August[1] - Imports from the EU decreased by 1.81 percentage points to -3.49% year-on-year[13] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN also saw declines, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.68%, -7.11%, and 4.23% respectively[13] Market Outlook - The global economic growth rate is below the average level of the first two decades of this century, as reported by the IMF[1] - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both lowered their economic growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points in September[1] - Despite short-term disruptions from extreme weather, exports may rebound as these factors subside[1]