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10.17住建部新闻发布会点评:加力保障供给侧,温和呵护需求侧
Huajin Securities·2024-10-17 12:34

Demand Side - The report emphasizes the need for monetary compensation for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, alongside the cancellation of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price limits, and adjustments to public housing standards, aiming to slow the decline in demand rather than stimulate a large-scale bubble [1][2][4] - Current challenges in the real estate market include demographic imbalances, long-term urbanization structural issues, and previous demand overextension, particularly in coastal and first-tier cities where housing price-to-income ratios have significantly increased [1][2] - The monetary compensation plan announced is limited to 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, contrasting sharply with the 1.8 million units targeted in the 2015-2017 plan, indicating a reduced scale of intervention [1][2] Supply Side - The report highlights an increase in loan support for "white list" projects, with a focus on ensuring that projects meet the criteria of "should enter, should lend, and can lend early," amounting to a total of 4 trillion yuan in support [5] - The introduction of a "white list" mechanism for real estate projects aims to streamline management and financing, ensuring that banks provide loans to eligible projects, thereby enhancing construction progress and project delivery [5] - Local governments are encouraged to utilize special bonds to acquire existing housing for social housing purposes, which will help alleviate housing supply issues and provide liquidity to real estate companies [8] Overall Market Outlook - The report concludes that the current policy adjustments are primarily focused on ensuring the delivery of already sold projects, while the long-term equilibrium of the real estate market is still influenced by demand-side factors [9] - The expectation is that the real estate market will reach an "L" shaped bottom around 2025, as current demand-side policies have shown limited effectiveness in stimulating new demand [9]