房地产行业点评报告：预期波动带来板块机会

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The joint meeting held by five ministries on October 17, 2024, introduced several unexpected measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the reintroduction of monetized resettlement, which had been downplayed since 2018 [2] - The meeting confirmed the addition of 1 million housing units for monetized resettlement in urban villages, with potential for further increases, indicating a proactive approach to housing supply [2] - A significant increase in the white list financing mechanism was announced, with an additional credit of approximately 2 trillion yuan expected by the end of 2024, raising the total credit to 4 trillion yuan [2] - The management of pre-sale funds has been relaxed, allowing for earlier disbursement of loans to real estate companies, which marks a notable shift in policy [2] - The adjustment of real estate value-added tax is in process, with a higher likelihood of reduction, which could enhance cash flow for real estate companies [2] - The central bank's intention to provide loans for land acquisition indicates a clear policy direction to mitigate risks for housing enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development expressed optimism about the data for October, which is expected to be positive, boosting market confidence [3] Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The meeting highlighted the importance of monetized resettlement and its potential impact on the market, with a focus on urban areas rather than just third and fourth-tier cities [6] - The anticipated increase in land acquisition efforts is still under discussion, with expectations for clarity in November [6] Market Reactions - The market reacted negatively to the announcement, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index dropping by 6.23% on October 17, 2024, as investors perceived the measures as underwhelming [6] - The report suggests that the market's perception may be skewed by short-term thinking, creating potential investment opportunities [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on "consumption + real estate" sectors, with specific companies highlighted for investment, including Vanke A, JinDi Group, and Longfor Group [7] - It also suggests monitoring real estate intermediaries and leading real estate firms for potential performance exceeding expectations in Q4 2024 [7]